Who Struck The Hospital In Gaza?

Aftermath of strike on Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital In Gaza

Global Outrage At Gaza Hospital Strike

After news broke of an air strike against Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, Muslims protested and rioted in multiple countries amid reports that the Israel Defense Forces had bombed the hospital.

Did The IDF Bomb The Hospital?

By 4pm New York time yesterday, 70% of bettors on the Manifold prediction market believed that to be the case. By 5am Wednesday, the percentage of bettors believing the IDF bombed the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza had dropped to just 7%.

Why The 90% Drop In Bets That The IDF Bombed It?

One of the main reasons seems to be dawn in Gaza, shedding light on the parking lot where the weapon hit. The lack of a large impact crater, and the limited damage radius, appears to suggest the weapon was not a bomb, as the thread by Nathan Ruser below explains. Ruser also offers evidence that the casualty numbers claimed by Gaza officials seem high relative to the structural damage visible and past truck bombings.

First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel's campaign.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged. pic.twitter.com/yUs2MQI2VD
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site. pic.twitter.com/xnhOSjYf9E
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Namely because the 'before' image is from two days prior to the strike, I believe there were reports of the hospital being minorly damaged in strikes during that period so it is possible that the roof damage is not from the same time as the explosion.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Compare the damage from photos of rocket impacts in Ashkelon from last weekend. The only real difference is that this explosion appears to have involved more accelerant (which would track with reporting that this barrage was aimed at Tel Aviv). pic.twitter.com/NcI0Vp6OlI
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Compare this to airstrikes in Gaza which tend to leave a much larger crater and cause a lot more damage, they also almost always leave big deposits of concrete dust after striking a structure, though the construction of this particular hospital could be different. pic.twitter.com/xkK6Pg0NSu
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Also see this https://t.co/7blIvu31am to show the scale of the structural damage and concrete dust.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

It is also more than possible that there were many people in the area. And the casualties could be quite high, especially if people were out in the open and there was falling, burning fuel.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

But 500's incredibly high number, honestly implausible. Overlaying the area of damage on Google Earth - keep in mind this is mostly from burning cars NOT the explosion - it is 228m2.
This is that sort of crowd density (assuming there were no survivors which is also implausible). pic.twitter.com/A6JoWTht7q
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

In July 2016 a truck bomb in Baghdad killed ~350, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2017, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed 500+, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2022, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed ~125, this is the damage it did.

Compare any of that to the above. pic.twitter.com/MHbTaYnlVz
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

Consistent With Yesterday's Missile Analysis

That is consistent with GeoConfirmed's analysis yesterday that a Palestinian missile had exploded in midair and one of the pieces fell on the hospital's parking lot.

GeoConfirmed ISR-PAL.

A missile launched by Palestinian Groups exploded mid-air and one of the pieces fell on the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital's yard.

31.504822, 34.46169

Before reacting READ our thread.https://t.co/qbpUGQk89o

1/X
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) October 17, 2023

GeoConfirmed did add a caution at the time:

Important note:
Our conclusions are based on our geolocations: That doesn't mean that they are THE truth, just what we think is highly likely based on our geolocations(facts) and logic/reason.
We are geolocators, not official investigators.
Do not take this conclusion as proven fact!
To be sure what really happened different official investigations are needed.

One thing this incident illustrates is that the propaganda battle will be an important front in this conflict.

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Wednesday Evening Update

Nathan Ruser added to his thread throughout the day after we wrote this. In this post, he notes an impact crater, but says it's inconsistent with an airstrike.

This video is the first that shows an impact crater. Once again, inconsistent with an airstrike. This crater is ~10m away (& closer to the civilian camp) from where I initially thought the impact was. https://t.co/HTVP7O4aZq pic.twitter.com/iP6NOlU98A
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

In this one, he criticizes the IDF's release of thermal drone imagery that doesn't include the small impact crater.

One other thing I will note, is that it is particularly sneaky of the IDF to release the thermal drone imagery in a way that just barely cuts out the small impact crater (around where the red circle would be). No idea if they did this deliberately, but it certainly does not help. pic.twitter.com/Yd8k277QHR
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

He also links to another thread of his refuting claims that the hospital was struck by an Israeli jet.

There's a few threads gaining some traction that claim to prove an Israeli jet struck the hospital. They're wrong. Their geolocation is wrong & their timing is wrong.
Here's a thread where I step-by-step refute their claims. https://t.co/w2C012C0u6
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023

You can find his complete thread, as of 5:45pm New York time Wednesday, embedded below.

@dpinsen Salam, you can read it here: https://t.co/ga7FXP4OGz Have a good day. 🤖
— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) October 18, 2023

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