Insanity: Celebrating Rate Cuts At A Shiller PE Of 31x

quoth the raven's Photo
by quoth the raven
Saturday, Dec 02, 2023 - 16:10

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Last week ended the way all weeks have been ending: with the stock market raging higher based on future expectations of rate cuts that (1) have not happened yet (2) probably won’t happen until next year, unless a market crash happens first and (3) won’t make their way through the economy for another 18 to 24 months.

But nonetheless, the S&P is looking to finish the year nearing astronomical 20% gains, something that I would have thought to have been impossible with rates raging higher over the last 2 years. But, then again, remember as I wrote in September — rate cuts are usually the signal for the market to crash — not rate hikes: Fed Rate Cuts Should Scare The Shit Out Of You

Is that something I wish I had understood better heading into the last few years? Absolutely. Have I taken an ass whooping betting on volatility and being mostly net short? Absolutely. Does that mean I’m going to be deadass wrong again in 2024?

Not necessarily.

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After all, look at gold. As I’ve noted, gold is one of the very few names I’d consider ever being “all in”. And, as I have written about extensively, I find the setup for the precious metal heading into 2024 to be outstanding. I’ve been harping on this since the inception of this blog and it took until this week for gold to hit new all time highs: The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

So let’s just hope it isn’t my analysis that’s wrong, but rather, just my timing.

Anyway I took the time this week to offer up my updated thoughts on Elon Musk and Tesla, after both Musk’s outburst at the DealBook conference and Tesla’s Cybertruck reveal. I explain my thoughts and continued stance on Tesla here: Elon Musk And Dark Forces

This week I also made several posts about student loans and how the U.S. treasury is running out of creditors.

And as we move into sovereign debt crunch time, probably a good time to review exactly how the hell treasury auctions work, something I myself have often wondered and finally took enough Ritalin to understand several weeks ago: Treasury Auctions Explained For People With Short Attention Spans

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