The halving is upon us
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Bitcoin's dollar exchange rate fell this week. The decline has been attributed to investors selling off "risk" over the weekend due to geopolitical events and Jerome Powell announcing that rate cuts are unlikely to happen soon.
Most investors still consider bitcoin in the same category as tech stocks – or a "risk on" asset.
However, this characterization overlooks key fundamentals:
The global economy is entrenched in a defective fiat currency system.
Bitcoin is the most sophisticated form of money created, poised to supplant fiat money entirely, despite competition from gold, CBDCs, and other cryptocurrencies.
With a 21 million unit supply cap, an increase in bitcoin's use will increase its purchasing power, redistributing the value of all economic goods across a finite number of units.
Those who grasp this stand before an opportunity.
NEWS
Fed dials back rate cut expectations
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that consistent firm inflation readings have dampened the likelihood of early rate cuts this year, with the central bank requiring more time to gain confidence that inflation is stabilizing. Powell's comments reflect a shift in the Fed's stance due to recent data suggesting prolonged inflationary pressures, thus potentially delaying any rate reductions and complicating efforts to achieve a smooth economic landing.
What’s the endgame?
President Biden indicated that there would still be a rate cut this summer – which is still in play. Here’s a take from Dr. Jeff Ross on how things might play out:
The US Treasury continues trying to auction fresh bills, notes, and bonds at lower yields "because inflation is trending lower."
— Dr. Jeff Ross (@VailshireCap) April 15, 2024
The stealth (never publicly discussed) hope is to let inflation run a little hot while issuing lower yielding Treasurys... which will help inflate…
Stablecoin legislation re-emerges in the Senate
U.S. lawmakers have avoided setting clear policy for stablecoins, which are cryptographic tokens that are backed one-to-one by U.S. dollars. That might change this year – Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) recently penned an op-ed for Coindesk outlining the Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoin Act of 2024.
Per their article, the Stablecoin Act aims to maintain state authority over non-depository trust companies, align federal and state banking charters, and establish a role for the Federal Reserve to foster a conducive environment for stablecoins.
Whether the act will gain support from critics like Senator Elizabeth Warren remains to be seen.
Institutions still on the sidelines
Despite the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, many large institutions have yet to allocate client funds meaningfully. While retail demand for bitcoin through ETFs has been robust, some financial advisors and larger institutional investors have been moving slowly.
BitGo CEO Mike Belshe summarized the sentiment in a recent interview:
Is it all going to go to BlackRock or to Fidelity, or heck, is Bitwise going to get some of this? Is it going to be really unstable? Is it going to get big really fast? That’s all starting to shake out now. People are now looking at it and saying, ‘Yeah, this is a pretty robust ecosystem, the largest, fastest-growing ETF sector in the history of the market.
In a perfect world
Investors would do themselves a favor to understand bitcoin's benefits beyond its increasing purchasing power – especially those surrounding ownership of physical bitcoin instead of the paper claims sold by ETF issuers.
Commercial real estate, the slow-motion train wreck that keeps on chugging
Amidst growing signs of stress in the economy overall, commercial real estate (CRE) is particularly troubling. The number of vacant office buildings continues to increase. This situation is compounded by the continued trend of companies relocating their offices to low-tax states.
How do interest rates factor in?
Powell's decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged will exacerbate this problem. In the coming quarters, firms will have no choice but to refinance their real estate loans at higher interest rates. Delinquencies will continue to affect regional banks – with many building reserves in anticipation of CRE-related losses.
BITCOIN ADOPTION CONTINUES
Despite a general downturn in venture capital, funding for bitcoin startups surged in 2023, with a 360% increase in pre-seed deals and a 69.2% rise in bitcoin venture deals.
Onramp expands in MENA with a unique bitcoin custody service tailored to local needs.
Google Trends data indicates that interest in the 'Bitcoin halving' has reached an all-time high, more than doubling the peak interest from the last halving in 2020.
Bitcoin Magazine and Kraken are hosting the Bitcoin Halving Livestream to celebrate the fourth bitcoin halving.
HOW BITCOIN WORKS
Learn one key idea about bitcoin each week. This week:
Is bitcoin a bearer asset?
Bitcoin changes the way we interact with money from an ownership perspective.
Unlike digital dollars, which offer holders a claim to an underlying asset, or physical dollars that cannot be used for online transactions, bitcoin is a pure form of digital cash.
One way to think about bitcoin's ownership qualities is by viewing it as a bearer asset. Taking self-custody of bitcoin provides the private key holder access to the underlying asset at any time. Unlike dollars held in a bank account, money market fund, Venmo, or PayPal account, taking self-custody gives holders complete control over their bitcoin, like physical cash.
Owning your keys means owning your coins in a pure, literal way. Therefore, bitcoin is a bearer asset. However, what makes it special is that it is the first digital bearer asset.
Physical bearer assets: A short history
Bearer assets are financial instruments that represent an obligation to pay the holder a fixed amount of another asset upon demand. Issuers create them through physical certificates, vouchers, or tickets. Ownership is transferred by physically giving the certificate to someone else. Historically, banknotes were bearer assets redeemable for a fixed amount of another asset, usually gold.
Is cash a bearer asset?
Fiat currencies are not bearer instruments. Physical cash has value based on the assumption that others will accept it for goods and services. Digital fiat currency is not a bearer instrument either. Digital dollars are held in regulated, third-party custody accounts and can only be spent through those third parties, introducing risk and uncertainty.
Banks have working hours, outside of which your deposit slip may not be exchanged for cash. Accounts can be frozen by accident or on purpose, with or without cause. Digital dollars require people who are the rightful owners of their money to be subject to institutions that many view as unreliable, untrustworthy, or corrupt.
What makes bitcoin different
Bitcoin is a unique digital asset that allows users to transact without relying on any financial institution. To move bitcoin, the owner needs a private key. This key represents digital asset ownership that can be transferred to a different address without requiring a third party.
Owning bitcoin means being able to move it, similar to a physical asset that represents ownership of a specific amount of gold or bonds.
Bitcoin: A bearer instrument for the digital future
Bitcoin is internet-native money that combines physical and digital features. Its open-source code base allows for continuous auditing and development of new custody solutions. Bitcoin's utility as a digital bearer instrument offers actual ownership, making it ideal for the modern age.
To understand the why peer-to-peer, permissionless exchange is fundamental to a free society, we recommend watching Natalie Smolenski’s keynote speech from last week’s Bitcoin Policy Summit:
FROM THE MEME POOL
— Bitcoin Breakdown ⚡ (@BTCBreakdown) April 17, 2024
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