We upgrade our gold forecasts materially. We shift our price targets to the previously published upside scenario, now looking for gold to rally to $3500 this year. The case for adding gold allocations has become more compelling than ever in this environment of escalating tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation and lingering geopolitical risks. The current backdrop wherein global trade, economic and geopolitical relationships may be changing reinforces the need to diversify into safer havens like gold. We expect gold's rally to extend into next year and for prices to stabilise at higher levels further out.
Upside risks to demand, especially from China
An important development to monitor is the rollout of insurance companies’ gold mandate. Among those that have been allowed to invest up to 1% of AUM in gold, a few have now started doing test trades. This is earlier than we expected. The 10 insurance companies that have so far been allowed to invest in gold account for about 57% of the industry,
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