Geopolitical Update: Deals and Meals

Topics:

1. Trump’s Big Scores in the Middle East: US foreign policy shift
2. Russia & Ukraine: Putin Adds pressure
3. US in the Cross-Straight Affairs: Trump’s Taiwan Card

Trump Scores Big in the Middle East:

More than 2,400 hours have passed; Russia’s Special Military Operation is still advancing and the Summer Offensive is just about to commence. Despite all the set-backs in peace brokering, Trump scored the biggest deal so far this term as he confirmed his schedule last minute after learning that Putin didn’t even plan to be in Istanbul. A very fruitful trip to say the least, Trump not only signed multiple deals but also announced the cessation of the sanctions on Syria.

Here are some of the highlights of our observation: (1) there is a notable shift in how US carries out foreign policies – during the Biden admin, Europe was largely the apparatus through which US exerted influence; however, in Trump 2.0, the Gulf countries seem to be serving this function amid the rebalancing of power dynamics in that hemisphere and the dividing interests between Europe and the US; (2) the fact that Trump did not visit Israel this time and still decided to lift the sanctions against Syria in face of external and internal resistance also corroborates the first point. The idea of building a Trump Tower in Damascus is so irresistible, isn’t it? The Gulf Region is making great efforts in an attempt to become the 3^rd largest AI hub in the world, in an area where energy is not an issue, they are to invest a few times of their GDP building this project with the US. This process is likely to bring some stability in the region for now.

Russia & Ukraine: Putin Adds Pressure

In the last few weeks, we started seeing signs of the negotiation getting serious. Russia and Ukraine swapping 1,000 POWs was one of them. The widely covered Istanbul gathering was more of a show that wasn’t going to yield anything than a proper, bona fide negotiation. Putin knew that and was clearly aware of Zelensky’s intent – trying to recreate the drama in the White House in front of global audience. Putin is too smart to walk into an ambush. While the Russian military still makes steady progress on the frontline, it’s informative to take a look at Dmitry Peskov’s (Kremlin Press Secretary) announcements after the Istanbul meeting (note the emphases in italics):

• · A meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains possible, contingent on prior agreements being reached by their respective delegations.
• · Russia will formulate and present to Ukraine a formal list of ceasefire conditions.
• · Should a decision be made to hold talks between Putin and Trump, the Kremlin will issue an official announcement (Translation: which is the only one that counts).
• · The first stage in the negotiation will be completed by implementing the Istanbul agreements, including the reciprocal 1:1 prisoner exchange (1,000 individuals on each side).
• · For Russia, it is critical to determine who will be signing the finalized documents in Kyiv once an agreement is reached between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations.
• · No discussions have taken place regarding potential adjustments to the composition of either delegation; this process remains in its preliminary stages.
• · The Russian Federation declines to comment on leaked information pertaining to conditions raised during negotiations with Ukraine, as diplomatic proceedings must be conducted confidentially. (A critical point Lavrov also emphasized numeral times.)

This statement clearly paints a very different picture than Western media – the meddling of Europe, the fact that the war is still going on, and the following phone call between Trump and Putin: