Who Won The 12-Day War?
Assessing The Impact Of The 12-Day War
Now that the dust as settled on the Israel (+U.S.)-Iran War, both sides have declared victory. Israel did here (in Persian, so Iranians could read it.
⭕️ به دنبال دستور رده سیاسی، آتشبس به اجرا درآمده است.
— ارتش دفاعی اسرائیل | IDF Farsi (@IDFFarsi) June 24, 2025
⭕️ ارتش اسرائیل آمادگی حمله و دفاع در برابر هرگونه تحولی که ممکن است در ساعات آینده رخ دهد, را دارد و آماده است تا به سرعت به هرگونه نقض آتشبس پاسخ دهد - در صورت نقض، ما به شدت واکنش خواهیم داد.
⭕️ ما به طور کامل به تمام… pic.twitter.com/L6Qckt6ONz
And Iran's Press TV network reported that Iranians held victory rallies to celebrate the end of the war.
🇮🇷 Iranians hold nationwide rallies to celebrate victory over Israel.
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) June 24, 2025
Follow: https://t.co/LWoNSpkc2J pic.twitter.com/Fdqz5RIDd6
Below we'll assess the impact of the 12-Day War. Before we get to it, two brief programming notes. We have a trade alerts going out this week including on a small cap defense name that just hit our top names list. If you'd like a heads up when we place our trade alerts, you can subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below.
And if you want to limit your downside risk, in the event ceasefire breaks and the war flares up again, you can download the Portfolio Armor iPhone app or subscribe to the website. Both will help you scan for the optimal hedge given your risk tolerance and time frame.
Now let's break down the outcome of the 12-Day War, first quantitatively/objectively, and then we'll make some more subjective assessments of political winners and losers.
Human Cost
| Category | Iran | Israel | Notes & most recent tallies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed killed (civilians + uniformed) | ≈ 1 020 (≈ 430 civilians / ≈ 590 IRGC & regulars) | 28 – 31 (17 – 20 civilians / 8 – 11 IDF & police) | Iranian MoH (24 Jun) · Magen David Adom & MoD (25 Jun) |
| Wounded | ≈ 3 550 | ≈ 1 120 | Same agencies |
Key Personnel Losses
| Side | Senior losses |
|---|---|
| Iran | • Hossein Salami – IRGC commander-in-chief ↵• Saeed Izadi – Quds “Palestine Corps” chief ↵• Behnam Shariyari – long-range-missile logistics head ↵• Four regional Quds-Force chiefs ↵• Dr Reza Jahangiri – chief chemist, UF₆ line, Natanz ↵• Dr Kamal Danesh – IR-8 centrifuge R&D lead, Natanz ↵• Dr Mehdi Soleimani – operations superintendent, Isfahan pilot plant |
| Israel | — (no flag-rank or senior political casualties) |
Weapons Expenditure And Intercepts
| Metric (12 days) | Figure | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Ballistic & cruise missiles launched by Iran | ≈ 480 | Shahab-3, Kheibar-1, Qiam, Sejjil, Kh-55 derivatives |
| Shahed-type drones launched by Iran | ≈ 1 000 | Most intercepted over Jordan/Iraq airspace |
| Israel’s intercept rate | ≈ 80 % (missiles) · > 90 % (drones) | Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Patriot, Aegis Ashore |
| Israeli/U.S. PGMs & stand-off strikes | > 520 rounds | F-35I, Rampage, Spice, B-2/B-1 JDAM, Tomahawk |
Strategic Damage, Iran
| Iranian assets hit by Israel/U.S. | Result |
|---|---|
| Natanz main enrichment halls | One hall “irreparably damaged” (IAEA, 25 Jun) |
| Fordow hardened bunkers | Entrances collapsed by penetrating JDAM/B-2 strike |
| Arak heavy-water reactor wing | Cooling-tower & isotope-production buildings destroyed |
| Parchin R&D tunnels | Multiple shafts caved; test infrastructure lost |
| Isfahan air-defence belt | ≥ 70 SAM batteries & radars destroyed |
| Basij/IRGC militia base (Tehran) | HQ complex flattened; hundreds of casualties |
Strategic Damage, Israel
| Target struck by Iran | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Soroka Medical Center, Beersheba | Two Kheibar-1 impacts; 4 dead, ≈ 240 wounded; ER reopened 26 Jun |
| Ashdod LNG import pier | Minor damage; operations resumed 27 Jun |
| Southern power substations | Outages restored within 48 hours |
Net Assessment
| Domain | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Civilian protection | Israel suffered ≪ casualties vs Iran (≈ 1 : 25 ratio) |
| Leadership/technical decapitation | Significant IRGC & nuclear-scientist losses; none on Israeli side |
| Strategic infrastructure | Iranian enrichment & air-defense networks heavily degraded; Israeli core infrastructure largely intact |
| Weapon effectiveness | Israeli and American missile defense destroyed ~80% of incoming missiles, but at high financial cost. |
Political And Other Impact
This part will necessarily be more subjective, but let's take a crack at it.
Winners
- President Trump. Trump got plaudits from much of the American political spectrum for striking Iran's nuclear program without (so far, at least) getting the U.S. mired in another Mideast quagmire. And by harshly criticizing Israel and successfully ordering Israel's planes to turn back on the last day of the war, he quashed claims that he was simply doing Israel's bidding. Even Russian Special Envoy Kirill Dmitriev paid his respects.
NATO meeting will start today. pic.twitter.com/rv7SQhgOCS
— Kirill A. Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) June 24, 2025 - Israel. After weakening Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel (with U.S. assistance) landed the heaviest blows on Iran that country has suffered since the Iran-Iraq War. The Israeli stock market-tracking ETF iShares MSCI Israel (EIS) is trading near its all-time high, reflecting optimism about the country's future.
JUST IN 🚨: Israel Stock Market hits new all-time high pic.twitter.com/ruyQPOkzBR
— Barchart (@Barchart) June 26, 2025 - The Sunni Gulf States. Avoided direct involvement (with the exception of Iran's token missile strike at America's base in Qatar, which was intercepted) while mediating cease-fire—enhances diplomatic clout. And their supply routes remained open.
Losers
- Neocons. By demanding more strikes on Iran after the ceasefire was announced and lashing out at American moderates, prominent neocons such as Mark Levin discredited themselves.
- Paleocons. By warning of calamities from U.S. involvement that didn't come to pass (at least not yet), they weakened their argument against even limited U.S. military interventions overseas. President Trump successfully threaded the needle between them and the neocons.
- Missile Defense Contractors. Although Israeli and American systems shot down ~80% of Iranian missiles, they did so at enormous cost. Israelis having bomb shelters in every home and apartment building probably saved more lives than the Iron Dome. One wonders if this war will decrease the chances of America building its Golden Dome missile defense system.
- Palestine. This war showed how Israel's small, densely compact size made it vulnerable to missile strikes. Even though its overall casualties were low and most of its key infrastructure survived, it was forced to evacuate its main international airport and in a longer war, would have suffered significant economic damage. After this, Israel will likely be less inclined to give up the West Bank to a hostile state.
IranIranian hardliners, including the Ayatollah. When push came to shove, Iran proved to be strategically isolated. Its (former?) proxy Hezbollah refused to enter the war on Iran's side, China warned Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Russia declined to offer timely military assistance.*Putin was asked why he is not assisting Iran.
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) June 21, 2025
His response: “Israel today is almost a Russian-speaking country, two million people from the Soviet Union and Russia live there. We take that into account.” 👇 pic.twitter.com/bgzNqNUdES- Anti-American Third Worldists. Contra their expectations, the BRICS didn't rally to Iran's assistance. And contra their hopes of Russia giving Iran nuclear weapons, Russia's Dmitry Medvedev explicitly said Russia would not be doing so.
— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) June 23, 2025
*Switched the loser here from Iran to Iranian hardliners, because it looks like there might be a silver lining in the military defeat for Iran: a weakening of Iranian hardliners/hawks and a strengthening of moderates seeing to improve relations with the U.S. and its regional allies.
plausible narrative emerges from the article that khamenei was couped by peace-seeking moderates. pic.twitter.com/5q7VrheG9v
— eugyppius (@eugyppius1) June 26, 2025