Contents

1. Bottom Line
2. Where We Are and How We got Here
3. Positioning Remains Light Despite Eastern Buying
4. China Demand and the White Metals Rotation
5. Geopolitical Drivers Tamped Down
6. Outlook: Don’t Underestimate Political Incompetence

Bottom Line

Gold's ascent toward $3,500/oz this year has been driven by global trade uncertainty, but macroeconomic data are now expected to become the primary catalyst for price movement, according to our observations tracking reaction functions to tariff policy, inflation, and Fed action.

[ EDIT:: For coverage of Platinum's rally this morning watch the unlocked Market Rundown | Platinum Trades $1400+ ] 

Where We Are and How We got Here

Trade-related volatility has fueled gold demand in 2025, but market sensitivity to tariff news is waning. With U.S. tariff expectations now anchored at 10–15%, attention is shifting toward the macroeconomic fallout—particularly slower growth and rising inflation. This dynamic increases the probability of stagflation, supporting gold as a risk hedge.

The Federal Reserve is forecast to resume monetary easing in Q3, with 50 to 75bp of cuts expected. While gold decoupled from interest rates during the hiking cycle, we anticipate renewed rate cuts will provide support.

Structural pressures including rising U.S. debt levels and declining global trust in U.S. assets continue to underpin demand from central banks and institutions. Central bank purchases are projected to remain near 950 tonnes.

Positioning Remains Light Despite Eastern Buying

Investor positioning remains light, offering upside potential for increased allocation. But we have been hearing this for some time now. Despite the muted Western investment, the Far East has been busy buying hand over fist. Yet no new highs have been attained recently.

Gold is expected to consolidate before a renewed rally toward $3,600/oz by year-end if you take the most recent bullish estimates and mute them a little. Peak prices are forecast for late 2025 by all but Goldman, who believe gold will continue higher to $4,000 by mid-2026.

Goldman Stands Firm on $4,000 Call Post Citi's Bear Call

·Jun 20

This is a direct empirical reinforcement of Goldman’s earlier thesis and implicitly, a challenge to Citi’s more muted Gold outlook covered here yesterday. Read full story

Meanwhile, recent price spikes in silver and platinum have attracted attention. Both metals benefited from their relative valuation to gold and market tightness. Silver ETFs saw inflows of 22moz and platinum lease rates surged, suggesting scarcity.

China Demand and the White Metals Rotation

The price of platinum and silver  (see: BOA Says Silver to $40 in 2025) are not high. We believe the high price of gold is driving demand into the white metals by Asians seeing value. People see how far gold has moved and they are now looking at the whole commodity complex to follow the pace set by gold. Who are we to argue with them?

Certainly the banks are not long silver—we know this for sure. And most were short platinum before the face-ripping rally that just happened.

Platinum: Goldman Asks if Rally is Structural or Temporary

Jun 15

We believe some banks were long gold and short silver for years, and are now taking some pain unwinding this type of position. Yesterday’s price action was another confirmation of this concept.

Geopolitical Drivers Tamped Down

With U.S.-China negotiations ongoing and Middle East conflict appearing contained, geopolitical urgency for gold is fading. We note the Israel-Iran bombing followed a sequence of diplomatic activity—Riyadh accords, China rare earth deals, and Russia outreach—implying coordination and potential easing of mercantilist pressures. This raises the prospect of limited re-globalization, diminishing short-term gold urgency.