Housekeeping: Tomorrow GoldFix will email premium subscribers a full silver breakdown to prepare for the week ahead titled “Why It’s Silver’s Turn” Don’t miss it.

Silver Nears 2011 Highs as Physical Market Fractures

US Premiums and LBMA Illusion of Liquidity

Silver prices broke out to their highest level in over a decade, reflecting rising tension in global bullion markets. Spot silver jumped as much as 4% to $38.47 an ounce, while US futures contracts for September delivery traded at $39.12. The resulting spread between London spot and New York futures is unusually wide, suggesting a breakdown in normal arbitrage flows.

Under typical conditions, such divergences are closed quickly. The fact that they persist points to a fundamental dislocation—one where demand is pulling metal out of available supply channels faster than it can be replaced.

Before we get into the returning tariff situation as the direct contributor to price, it is very important to back up a little bit to what is driving Trump’s tariff behavior, global protectionist measures, and ultimately to the US future economy. Silver’s price is only a symptom; a symptom of inept risk management and abusive bank behavior for decades, but a symptom nonetheless.

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Lets take a look at the catalyst for the cascading prices higher in all metals, while staying focused on Silver.

Cold War 2.0 is a Mineral War

When Mercantilism manifests, It’s a matter of national security. In this clip, Josh Phair of Scottsdale Mint explains how important this is becoming.

What is the catalyst of it all... https://t.co/GkZpdCei8t

— VBL’s Ghost (@Sorenthek) July 12, 2025

Which brings us back to Tariffs...

The Ghost of Tariffs Returns

A similar divergence emerged earlier this year when the White House floated the possibility of tariffs on silver imports. That prospect sent US futures higher and prompted traders to move physical bullion into Comex-eligible warehouses in New York. Lease rates spiked as metal was tied up in transit.

In January during the US Gold Repatriation event and the Tariff fears, the spread between US Silver prices and London Silver prices reached $1.06 while Gold reached $50 differential (chart below), an unheard of and completely irrational event if the metal London says it was actually available.

This indicated the volume metal in London available for sale and delivery was much lower than stated by the LBMA; this despite laughingly insincere protests that it was only logistics ( “It’s heavy”) delaying deliveries by LBMA executives This week makes it clear that particular problem was never rectified.