Betting Markets Get It Right, Best Pollsters in 2024 Presidential Election

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (July 14, 2025) - A new study released by researchers at Vanderbilt University suggests that online betting markets, specifically Polymarket, significantly outperformed traditional polling in forecasting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The study, titled “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?”, compares betting data from Polymarket—currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency-based prediction market—with conventional public opinion polling. The researchers found that Polymarket predicted Donald Trump’s victory with greater accuracy and responsiveness than traditional polling methods, both nationally and in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

“Our research reveals a fundamental shift in how we might assess and forecast elections,” said Professor Brett Goldstein, who leads the Wicked Problems Lab at the Institute of National Security and is a research professor in Vanderbilt’s School of Engineering. “Polymarket's performance, particularly its dynamic responsiveness to real-world events, suggests that wisdom-of-crowds approaches have untapped predictive potential in national elections and other high-stakes events. This is just the tip of the iceberg,” Goldstein emphasized. “More work needs to be done to understand these types of methods better.”

The paper’s authors applied Bayesian Structural Time Series modeling to analyze and forecast election results using both Polymarket and polling data. Their results indicated that Polymarket not only adjusted more quickly to major political developments—such as the attempted assassination of then-candidate Trump and the entry of Kamala Harris into the race—but also predicted the eventual winner earlier and with greater confidence than polls did.

Dr. Laurie E. Cutting, the Patricia and Rodes Hart Chair Professor of Neuroscience at Vanderbilt University in the Departments of Special Education, Psychology and Human Development, Radiology, Pediatrics, and Electrical and Computer Engineering and member of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security’s Faculty Advisory Council, emphasized the broader implications of the findings.

“Polls have long been a cornerstone of democratic engagement, but their limitations have become increasingly apparent over recent election cycles,” Cutting said. “This study opens the door for further exploration into how decentralized markets might complement or even replace certain polling functions in both political forecasting and beyond.”

The study also raises important questions about online prediction markets. While the results are compelling, the authors caution that factors such as market manipulation, demographic skew, and access limitations must be addressed before Polymarket or similar platforms can be widely adopted as predictive tools in democratic processes.

“It is crucial heading into the 2026 election cycle that we understand how to make these types of markets reliable reflections of public sentiment, which will require understanding how to make them resilient to manipulation. This is critical, as they could play a key role in shaping our democracy,” Cutting said.

The full study is now available here:  “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?”

About the Institute of National Security at Vanderbilt University

The Vanderbilt Institute of National Security brings together interdisciplinary research and practical solutions to address complex national and global security challenges. Through initiatives like the Wicked Problems Lab, the Institute serves as a hub for collaboration between scholars, practitioners, and policymakers navigating an increasingly uncertain world.