“We are in a Mineral War Now”

A Sudden Dislocation in the Silver Market

Authored by GoldFix for Scottsdale Mint 

July opened with an alarm bell. The Exchange for Physical (EFP) premium for silver, which reflects the cost of converting COMEX futures into deliverable metal, surged from near-zero levels to between 60 and 80 cents per ounce. This kind of move does not occur in isolation. At the same time, spot silver jumped more than two dollars, pushing beyond $38 per ounce. These changes appeared within a 48-hour window.

The market had not been showing extreme activity beforehand. There was no retail panic. There was no visible hedge fund blow-up. The sudden dislocation points toward real physical demand. Premiums of this magnitude suggest someone is urgently acquiring silver, and they are willing to pay a steep price to get it now.

Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint, explains how important silver is becoming.

The U.S. Tightens Control Over Industrial Metals

One example of this shift is the development of the Arubus Richmond facility in Augusta, Georgia. This billion-dollar metals recycling plant, currently in phase one at around $300 million, is designed to capture and refine scrap copper within the U.S. border. The metals are intended for use in infrastructure, artificial intelligence hardware, energy systems, and military equipment. The underlying message is simple: critical resources must stay home.

Rare Earths and the Race for Resource Security

This copper policy fits into a broader campaign. The United States is now working across North and South America to secure trade relationships around rare earths and other minerals. Argentina has become a new focus area. What appeared to be a looming crisis just weeks ago has now turned into quiet but intense coordination. Washington is building long-term supply security at the state level, backed by law, diplomacy, and economic incentives.

Control over energy-related minerals is also advancing quickly. Without materials like uranium, copper, and silver, none of the major pillars of modern life—AI, semiconductors, defense systems, or data networks—can operate. The entire system depends on steady input of these physical resources.

Strategic Tightness and the Revaluation of Silver

Silver is one of the key materials undergoing reevaluation. Its role in the energy transition and digital infrastructure is increasingly obvious. The jump in EFP premiums suggests the market is beginning to reflect this. When futures contracts trade far below the cost of sourcing physical metal, it signals that investors and industrial users are willing to absorb that cost difference. That implies urgency, not arbitrage.

Historically, metals like copper and nickel were prioritized during wartime and industrial buildouts. Silver may now be entering that same category. The premium movement is not speculative noise. It is an early signal that something has changed in the supply chain.

Global Alignments Are Being Redrawn

Outside the United States, control over mineral flows is also shifting. China has spent the last decade establishing dominance over African resource output. However, political instability and a wave of coups are beginning to disrupt that control. European governments have yet to commit to a clear alignment, and many are waiting to see how the new trade blocs form.

These shifts are not abstract like some Keynesian correlation. The movement of metals reflects new priorities in global policy. The countries that control their supply chains will be the ones with functional energy grids, productive militaries, and competitive tech sectors.

Conclusion: Silver Moves First

The recent movement in silver is a front-running indicator of deeper structural change. Physical demand has outpaced paper pricing. The EFP spike and spot rally are signals that the material world is reasserting control over the financial one.

The United States has begun to act with urgency. It is building out capacity, restricting exports, and solidifying regional alliances. The market has responded quickly. Silver moved higher, and the premium to obtain real ounces widened significantly.

This is what a supply chain reshuffle looks like. It starts quietly, with tariffs and facility openings. Then it shows up in price dislocations. And finally, it is recognized in hindsight as the start of something much larger.

Originally titled  US Metal War: Silver Becomes Strategic as Premiums Explode

Vincent Lanci is a commodity trader, Professor of MBA Finance (adj) , and publisher of the GoldFix newsletter.