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Trump Is Getting Bad Intel On The Russia-Ukraine War

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Saturday, Aug 02, 2025 - 8:11
Russian soldiers in Ukraine prepare to launch a drone (Screen capture via Russia's Ministry of Defense).
Russian soldiers in Ukraine prepare to launch a drone (Screen capture via Russia's Ministry of Defense). 

Trump Shares Casualty Figures That Strain Credulity 

On Friday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had "just been informed" that 112,500 Russian troops had been killed since the beginning of this year, versus 8,000 Ukrainian troops killed over the same time frame. 

These numbers strain credulity for at least two reasons: 

  1. During recent casualty exchanges, the numbers have been lopsided in the other direction, with Ukraine handing over the remains of fewer than 50 Russian troops while receiving the remains of hundreds or over a thousand of their soldiers in return.
  2. Russia's combat troops tend to be well-paid volunteers, while Ukraine has had to resort to grabbing men off the street to fill its military's ranks. If Russia were really losing 14x as many men as Ukraine (as Trump's figures suggest), one would figure military-age Russian men would be hiding from conscription squads, rather than casually walking around Moscow, enjoying a summer evening.

Bad Intel Helps Explain Trump's Frustration With Russia

As Sergei Witte pithily explains below: Trump figures that given such lopsided casualty figures, Russia ought to be eager to make a deal. 

Lack Of Understanding Russia's Position Explains It Too

Trump doesn't seem to understand that Russia views the Ukraine conflict as existential, and as such, won't deviate from its main terms: that Ukraine must be neutral, and not host NATO troops or weapons, and that it must be largely demilitarized, and that Ukraine recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and the four oblasts it annexed. So, as Professor Mearsheimer summarizes in the video clip embedded below, there's really no deal to be made with Russia: either we agree to their terms, or the conflict gets settled on the battlefield. 

Given that Russia appears to be slowly winning the war, and Ukraine can only expect to get worse terms the longer the war goes on, the logical thing to do would be to agree to Russia's current terms now--and if the Ukrainian government prefers not to, let them fight the war on their own dime. 

So We Get More Pointless Brinksmanship

One wonders why Trump listens to Lindsay Graham at all, a Senator who has long opposed the interests of Trump's base on immigration as well as his warmongering. 

Market Implications 

  1. Barring any last-minute epiphany about the reality of the Russia-Ukraine War on the part of Trump, it looks like we're headed for secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners. While the the market has taken Trump's ~25% sanctions in stride, >100% sanctioins on China, India, and other large countries remain a wildcard. Consider hedging. Portfolio Armor Substack subscribers are currently holding optimal puts on Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ -1.00%↓), and iShares MSCI India (INDA -0.30%↓). You can scan for your own optimal puts on both using the Portfolio Armor website or iPhone app. 
  2. Expect defense-related reindustrialization to continue apace. We've been looking for trade opportunities in this space, including in a satellite provider last week.
  3. Too complicated? Switch to autopilot. I wrote about an automated, hedged approach last week.

That's all I can think of for now. If I think of something else, I'll post it on the Portfolio Armor Substack. You can subscribe to it below. 


 

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
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