TD's Ghali: Silver Endgame Approaches, $50 On Table
Silver Approaches Endgame as Inventories Shrink
Silver is trading above $42.00 this morning. This is less than two weeks after Dan Ghali of TD Securities made some interesting comments updating his own view of the Silver situation as it pertains to available free-float silver (or lack thereof) from his January call of $40 silver when it was trading $30. Here is his note broken down as well as his January call in video form.
Gold at Records, Silver in Pursuit of $50.00
Gold has surged to fresh highs above $3,600 per ounce, drawing global headlines as investors pile into the metal on expectations of Federal Reserve easing and sustained central bank demand. Yet silver, often overshadowed by gold’s prominence, is showing equal if not greater potential momentum. Prices have reached $41.24 per ounce, their highest level in fourteen years, and analysts now warn that the last reserves of freely available stock could be gone within months.
The Analyst’s Warning
Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, has placed silver firmly in focus.
“If investment demand picks up, as we have seen happen in previous easing cycles, stockpiles could be depleted within four months.”
Ghali describes the current stage as the “endgame” of the cycle, where demand is eroding the “last dregs” of above-ground inventories. The bank has been constructive on silver since April 2024 when it first noted that London Bullion Market Association vaults were under strain from surging industrial use.
This is even more apparent when it is understood that Silver’s addition to the US critical minerals list makes it eligible for governmnet hoarding. GoldFix did a workup on price potential based on lithium and Uranium’s additions. Here it is…
Are You Ready for $144 Silver and $9.00 Copper?
The recent decision to add silver to the U.S. critical minerals list marks an important shift in how policymakers view the metal. The designation signals that silver is no longer treated as a simple commodity but as an asset tied to industrial capacity, technological development, and national security. Analysts and policymakers alike emphasize that this recognition places silver in the same category of strategic concern as lithium, uranium, and rare earths.
“Designation of a mineral as critical is bullish because it highlights essential demand, reveals insecure supply, and creates a government-backed floor for consumption.”
The lithium market provides a clear and very favorable example of how critical designation can lead to higher prices. After the U.S. listed lithium in 2018, automakers and investors rushed to secure access. Supply did increase, but the lag time for new mines allowed demand to run ahead, driving prices from under $10,000 per ton in 2020 to over $70,000 per ton by 2022.
Structural Deficits
The supply imbalance is not new. The Silver Institute expects 2025 to mark the fifth consecutive annual deficit, with shortfalls estimated at 117.6 million ounces. Ghali links the drawdown in global inventories to years of cumulative tightness combined with powerful megathemes.
“The drain in global inventories persists amid years of structural deficits, exacerbated by megathemes that should continue to attract capital into precious metal ETFs.”
These megathemes include silver’s role in solar panels, batteries, and other components critical to the green transition. This is not the first time Ghali has spoken as such. In January of this year Ghali warned of stockout risk.
Price Projections and Resistance Levels
TD Securities had projected an average silver price of $37.50 in the fourth quarter, but that forecast was made prior to recent events. Spot prices have already surged well beyond that level. Ghali sees few barriers left in the current trajectory.
“From a historical perspective, when we see this kind of melt-up, it is difficult to determine what prices can do. I think we could easily see $50 an ounce in the next couple of months. With the current momentum, that is how prices are tracking.”
The $50 level is not only psychological resistance but also the all-time high set in 2011.
Continues unlocked here
