In his latest technical update Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA) argues that silver is entering a decisive technical phase—one that could see prices double or even triple within six months. The catalyst, he says, lies not in gold’s trajectory, but in silver’s breakout against gold. We interpret that excellent commentary below.

Oliver identifies the critical signal as a breakout in the silver-to-gold spread, a long-term indicator of relative strength. This spread has approached the dual highs established over the past three years, and a confirmed breakout above those levels would signal, in his view, the start of a “vertical, dramatic, and speedy advance”.

Micheal Oliver's Eye-Popping Silver Observation. pic.twitter.com/cpzKCSW6iR

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Momentum Confirmation and Historical Context

MSA’s proprietary momentum analysis focuses on multi-period averages: a three-year average, a ten-month average (based on monthly closes), and a 40-week momentum structure that captures shorter-term inflection points. Each of these is aligning near identical breakout levels—a rare synchronization Oliver calls “hyper-valid” for confirming trend acceleration.

“Action tagged that level a few weeks ago and then pulled back a tad (we love that pullback because it tells us our breakout line is hyper-valid for momentum).”

According to the report, a weekly close at a spread of 1.245% (December Silver vs. December Gold) would trigger a confirmed momentum breakout. This, in turn, would likely drive the broader spread chart above its structural lid near 1.31%, effectively “taking the lid off” silver’s relative performance and initiating a surge comparable to historical episodes in 1979 and 2010–2011.

Parallel Signals in the Miners

Oliver extends his analysis to the silver miners-to-gold miners spread (SIL vs. GDX), another key gauge for confirming relative strength shifts. That spread, he notes, has already begun to turn higher after three years of compression.

“Close out this month on the spread at 94% and that will overcome the clear downtrend that has restrained the spread for three years. As of today’s close, the spread is 95.78%.”

If this level holds or expands, it implies that silver miners are leading the move—a historical precursor to major advances in the metal itself. Oliver projects sharp outperformance by silver miners “with both rising in net trend.”

The Repricing Thesis

Oliver’s framework emphasizes that silver’s movement is part of a “repricing of its decades-old reality”, suggesting a long-delayed structural catch-up rather than a speculative spike. His study draws parallels to prior “ballistic moves” that occurred when silver’s outperformance relative to gold broke through persistent ceilings—episodes that led to explosive, self-reinforcing trends.

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