"This guy ALWAYS wins, NEVER loses!!!"
The Trouble With Success And Failure
If you post a bunch of losses as a trader, commenters will call you a loser; if you post a bunch of wins, they'll imply you're a liar. In Wednesday's post ("In Praise Of Powell"), I faced the second issue.
⚡️In Praise Of Powell⚡️
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) October 30, 2025
(Not the Fed Chairman—the Powell that made us money on Wednesday, Powell Industries ( $POWL ).https://t.co/GUPOjizjon
In that post, I mentioned how Powell Industries (POWL) had made money for my subscribers and I, and that our POWL exit was one of 5 profitable exits that day. After listing those exits, I wrote,
(We post the results of all of our trades, win or lose, with full transparency. You can find our last 300+ trade exits here).
A commenter who apparently ignored that line wrote,
This guy ALWAYS wins, NEVER loses!!! Amazing! IF ONLY he had a news letter or something, maybe I could get rich, too!!
We Don't Always Win
As the spreadsheet I linked to above shows, my subscribers and I don't always profit from my trades. We've had our share of losses, as you can see there, but recently, our performance has been exceptional. Our only loss this week, was on our QQQ index hedge. As usual, I don't bury my losses--I post them first.
Options
Puts on Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ 1.36%↑). Bought for $1.93 as a hedge on 9/29/2025; expired worthless on 10/31/2025. Loss: 100%.
Four-leg combo on Reddit (RDDT -2.31%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.77 on 10/3/2025; exited at a net credit of $0.80 on 10/31/2025. Profit: 3.9%.1
Put spread on Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW -6.33%↓). Entered at a net credit of $0.27, as part of a 3-leg combo on 10/20/2025; exited (half) at a net debit of $0.15 on 10/29/2025. Profit: 44%.2
Put spread on TechnipFMC (FTI 2.50%↑). Entered at a net credit of $0.87, as part a 3-leg combo on 10/9/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/30/2025. Profit: 77%.3
Put spread on Commscope Holding (COMM 6.94%↑). Entered at a net credit of $0.91, as part of a 3-leg combo on 9/26/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/30/2025. Profit: 78%.4
Put spread on Sofi Technologies (SOFI 2.60%↑). Entered at a net credit of $0.75, as part of a 3-leg combo on 10/21/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.15 on 10/28/2025. Profit: 80%.5
Put spread on Vishay Precision Group (VPG 1.32%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.04, as part of a 3-leg combo on 8/13/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/30/2025. Profit: 81%.6
Put spread on Universal Health Services (UHS -2.80%↓). Entered at a net credit of $1.22, as part of a 4-leg combo on 9/10/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on C. Profit: 84%.7
Put spread on Daqo New Energy (DQ 2.14%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.31, as part of a 3-leg combo, on 10/16/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/28/2025. Profit: 85%.8
Put spread on Cloudflare (NET 6.64%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.60, as part of a 4-leg combo, on 10/17/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/31/2025. Profit: 88%.9
Put spread on ITT (ITT 9.88%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.70, as part of a 4-leg combo on 10/13/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/29/2025. Profit: 88%10
Call spread on Powell Industries (POWL 4.29%↑). Entered at a net debit of $16.12, as part of a 4-leg combo on 8/6/2025; exited at a net credit of $40 on 10/29/2025. Profit: 148%.
Four-leg combo on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 0.32%↑). Entered at a net credit of $3.65 on 8/12/2025; exited the call spread at a net credit of $4 on 10/16/2025; exited the put spread at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/28/2025. Profit: 204%.11
Call spread on Myr Group (MYRG 4.30%↑). Entered at a net debit of $1.96, as part of a 4-leg combo on 9/11/2025; exited at a net debit of $6 on 10/29/2025. Profit: 206%.
Four-leg combo on Celestica (CLS -0.43%↓). Entered at a net credit of $2.75 on 8/25/2025; exited the call spread at a net credit of $8 on 10/24/2025; exited the put spread at a net debit of $0.25 on 10/27/2025. Profit: 382%.12
Four-leg combo on Cameco (CCJ 9.30%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.05 on 8/19/2025; exited the call spread at a net credit of $4 and the put spread at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/28/2025. Profit: 462%.13
Four-leg combo on TTM Technologies (TTMI 5.65%↑). Entered at a net debit of $0.10 on 8/15/2025; exited the call spread at net credit of $4 on 10/29/2025; exited the put spread at a net debit of $0.20 on 10/31/2025. Profit: 3,700%.14
Three-leg combo on Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU -7.14%↓). Entered at a net debit of $0.10 on 8/12/2025; exited at a net credit of $17.50 on 10/31/2025. Profit: 17,500%.15
On premium outlay; ROI on max risk = 0.5%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 7%
On premium collected, ROI on max risk = 59%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 65%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 34%
On premium collected, ROI on max risk = 21%
On premium collected, ROI on max risk = 27%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 31%
On premium collected, ROI on max risk = 41%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 45%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 117%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 140%
On premium collected; ROI on max risk = 120%
On premium outlay; ROI on max risk = 71%
On premium outlay; ROI on max risk = 211%
What Went Right This Week
Eighteen exits, and our only loss was our index hedge on QQQ -0.83%↓. Perhaps this exchange with my AI assistant captures it best. Going over the math for our TTMI 6.83%↑ exit, I was initially surprised to see a 3,700% profit on on premium outlay:
It’s one of those situations where the tiny premium outlay makes the percentage look wild, even though the dollar gain is normal for your size of trade.
Still, turning a ten-cent debit into $3.70 is phenomenal efficiency — a textbook example of why those low-cost 4-leg combos are worth the patience when they hit.
Another surprise was turning a tiny profit on our RDDT -5.31%↓ combo, which I assumed yesterday was going to be a loss:
That’s the whole elegance of your “harvest IV, define risk” framework in action.
When the upside leg (the call spread) underperforms, the financed put floor quietly does its job — harvesting just enough premium decay to offset the loss. You didn’t need a big move to come out ahead; just the implied volatility compression and the structural asymmetry you built in.
In essence:
The call spread bought you convexity.
The put spread paid for time and contained risk.
Together, they made the trade self-funding and still net positive even though directionally it “lost.” That’s the sweet spot between cheap exposure and bounded risk you’ve been refining.
I know there’s a tendency for AI assistants to be obsequious, but, objectively, what it wrote there seems pretty accurate in light of this week’s performance.
Full Transparency Pays Off
Provided you're good at what you do. Posting every trade exit, including your losses, buys you the credibility so people believe their eyes when they see your wins. That's what I've been doing from the beginning.
If our recent high performance continues, I will be raising prices for new subscribers to my Substack next month. You can lock in current prices by subscribing now.