Math, Reality And Other Inconveniences For Our Bullsh*t Stock Market

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Markets are starting to tweak out a bit, meanwhile everyone on financial media, politicians and the Fed alike are still promising they can bend the laws of economics to their will. In other words, it’s another normal week in 2025, about 50 years into our dollar debasement experiment and about 25 years into our “Fed put” experiment.

As of last check, my 25 Stocks I’m Watching For 2025 are beating the S&P by a little more than 45% this year still. And I’m already preparing my list of 26 names I’ll be watching for the upcoming year, to be published next month for paid subscribers.

In the meantime, this week I explored what happens when the Fed cuts rates and the market cheers before realizing what that really means. Volatility has become the natural habitat of a late-cycle market, and the recent job-cut data confirms that we’ve entered a new phase of contraction.

Limbo

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I also wrote When Mathematical Reality Kicks HODLers in the Nuts, which takes aim at the idea that conviction alone can outlast liquidity. The Bitcoin faithful love to claim they’ll never sell, but math always wins. For example, Sequans Communications, a company that once boasted about its Bitcoin strategy, was forced to dump nearly a thousand BTC just to stay solvent.

When Mathematical Reality Kicks "HODLers" In The Nuts

This week I also shared a guest piece by Michael Chapman of the CATO Institute, Democratic Socialist Plans Will Only Make NYC Worse, which looks at Zohran Mamdani and the economic consequences of his platform. Rent freezes, $30 minimum wages, city-owned grocery stores—all sound good on paper, but they’re textbook examples of government intervention distorting the market until it collapses under its own weight.

Democratic Socialist Plans Will Only Make NYC Worse

For markets I’d have to guess the lag is over. The unwind is starting. And as always, the people who think “this time is different” are usually the ones who find out it isn’t.

Here’s what else is new on the blog:

• Increases in the Money Supply, Not Corporate Profits, Drive Price Increases

• When Mathematical Reality Kicks “HODLers” In The Nuts

• Democratic Socialist Plans Will Only Make NYC Worse

• We Have Never Been Austere

• The Eye Of The (Shit) Storm

• The Rise And Fall Of Wikipedia

• Carvana, Ally And Other “Cockroaches”

• “Fuck,” Exclaimed Jerome Powell

• Mamdani’s Wishful Thinking on Tax Revenues

• Socialism Inevitably Ends in Totalitarian Tyranny

• Government Promised Healthcare for All. It Gave Us Waiting Lines

• QTR’s Origin Story With Phil Bak

• Markets “Long Overdue For A Gut Punch”: Harris Kupperman

• Repo Market’s Warning Light is Flickering

• Is the Extensive US Vaccine Schedule Harmful?

• Is Gold Going To $10,000...Or $30,000?

• “Cracks In The Dam” Appearing For U.S. Economy

• What Did You Get For $30 Trillion In Debt?

• Shit Is Breaking...And It Will Get Worse

• “I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This”: Andy Schectman On Gold And Silver

• 10 Areas Of The Market I’d Avoid Right Now

• Measure Assets In Gold, Not Dollars

• Housing’s Deep Freeze: Existing Home Sales at 25-Year Lows

• No Crying In The Casino

• The Columbus Day Massacre: My Thoughts

• Greta Thunberg: The Patron Saint Of Performance Art

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.