TL/DR

Authored by GoldFix 

• GS frames the recent price breakout and the September surge in gold demand as the early stages of renewed synchrony between official sector accumulation and private-sector investment flows.
• Their central bank nowcast shows a sharp post-summer acceleration led by Middle Eastern and Chinese buyers.
• The appearance of strong ETF inflows at the same time amplifies the bullish case.
• The bank maintains its target of 4,900 dollars for gold by year-end 2026. (for now)

Overview

As intimated by ZH in China Is Buying 10x More Gold Than Officially Disclosed, Goldman Sachs reports that gold surged nearly six percent last week, briefly touching levels just under 4,100 dollars. The bank identifies a renewed acceleration in central bank demand after a quiet summer. According to Goldman, the underlying trend remains a multi-year build in gold reserves across major central banks as part of broader diversification and geopolitical risk management strategies.

The bank writes that its proprietary “nowcast of central bank purchases” shows a sharp rise in September and continued strength into November. Goldman continues to project that official sector buying and private investor inflows together form the backbone of its forecast for gold to rise to 4,900 dollars by the end of 2026.

 

Several things in this short but informationally packed piece stand out here,

1. China buys tripled from the prior month (seasonal but significant)
2. The Mechanics of China Projecting Pricing power are described
3. We reveal how a Bullion bank or two got killed in 2023-24
4. Note: more evidence shows global CB buying is spreading even while China keeps adding
5. We note here how: CB buying is increasingly price insensitive in the face of ETF competing buyers

This is must read if you are looking for insights regarding the stability of this most recent rally.  In short: the gold rally was not speculative at all, it was a new price discovery level of interest being obtained in our opinion. And CBs did not wait to buy. They stepped up. Deep pockets started chasing and Bullion banks started covering again

Central Bank Demand Reaccelerates

Goldman’s estimate for September central bank purchases is “64 tonnes for September (vs. 21 tonnes in August),” a near tripling of month-over-month volume. The bank adds that “central bank buying likely continued in November.” The forward assumption in the model remains unchanged, with Goldman stating that it “maintain[s] our assumption of average monthly central bank buying of 80 tonnes in 2025Q4–2026.”

The bank presents the increase as part of a long structural pattern. As noted in the report, “We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.” This thesis anchors the bank’s long-term bullish stance.

Geographic Breakdown of Official Purchases

Goldman attributes the bulk of September’s estimated 64-tonne buying to specific regional actors. The bank states that “purchases were led by the Middle East — Qatar at 20 tonnes and Oman at 7 tonnes — and China at 15 tonnes.” This continues a pattern seen earlier in the summer. The report notes that “Qatar also added an estimated 20 tonnes in July, continuing a relatively new accumulation trend.”

Goldman highlights that the September rebound aligns with established seasonal behavior: “After a quiet summer, central bank buying picked up in September… consistent with the post-summer seasonal acceleration.”

Convergence of Official and Private Demand

An important point in the report is the alignment of strong central bank flows with renewed Western ETF inflows. Goldman writes that September saw “the largest monthly gold Western ETF inflow (112 tonnes) since mid-2022.” The bank emphasizes the significance of this because “strong post-2022 central bank demand and such a sizable increase in ETF holdings have occurred simultaneously” for the first time in the current cycle.

Market Rundown| | China OTC Gold Buying Triples pic.twitter.com/9UP851LvtX

— VBL’s Ghost (@Sorenthek) November 19, 2025

Continues here.