No F**king Idea: My Take On Markets Into 2026
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” — Ferris Bueller
This post may not tell you anything you don’t already know but I feel like heading into the new year it’s a good time to honor Ferris Bueller’s motto on life — and stop and look around, and try and take some semblance of inventory as to where the ever-loving hell we are right now.
After all, it’s that whimsical time of year when analysts pretend they’re clairvoyant. Who says Christmas doesn’t bring magic? Sell side analysts across the board will be providing their version of unicorns shitting rainbows — in the form of pretending to have any clue about 2026 S&P targets — in the coming weeks.
And, being a true hypocrite, this also means it’s time for me to put out a multi-colored holiday turd of my own. In a couple weeks, I’ll release my 26 Stocks I’m Watching for 2026, a curated basket of what I think, hope (and pray) are under-loved, underpriced, and potentially underwhelming stocks and ETFs that might offer asymmetric upside.
The trillion dollar macro question is: where does the market go next? Up, down, sideways, diagonally, into a liquidity-induced hallucination—nobody knows. Definitely not the talking heads, and definitely not me. But I think we can at least outline the broad possibilities without pretending we’re cracking some golden code.
The bullish view, as best I can see, is: the economy might slow, the consumer might break, valuations might look like a cartoon bubble ready to pop—and none of that matters if the Fed decides to open the spigot. Liquidity doesn’t need logic, time, or economic justification. It just needs someone at the central bank to mash “print” like they’re rage-clicking a video game. One spreadsheet change and suddenly risk assets levitate like they found religion. In that version of reality, markets could bypass any downturn entirely and just keep rising because dollars flow faster than fundamentals decay.
The bearish view, is: outside the liquidity fairy tale, the real economy is quietly drowning. Americans are setting “all-time highs” in all the wrong categories: record debt, record delinquencies, record desperation. Credit cards are at $1.2 trillion. Auto loans are imploding. Commercial real estate is deflating like a parade balloon caught on a lamppost. Wall Street calls it “consumer strength,” but if maxing out 22% APR plastic to afford groceries is “strength,” then we’re one payday advance away from becoming competitive weightlifters. Eventually something snaps, not because of one crisis, but because everything is already stretched to the breaking point. And, then…you know…math.
For now, the market is holding up suspiciously well, which looks less like optimism and more like early pricing of political influence. Kevin Hassett has suddenly emerged as the front runner to replace Powell as Fed Chair. To say he’s a little supportive of rate cuts is like saying Charlie Sheen’s entire drinking career consisted of him once enjoying a half glass of Michelob Ultra.
Hassett is on record saying he’d be...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE, 100% FREE, HERE).