The Paris Plane Lotto Just Hit
Lilly Executives Flew to Paris to Discuss an Abivax Merger
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post here primarily about silver:
⚡️Silver Slingshot⚡️
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) December 10, 2025
The gold-silver ratio is going to compress further as it mean-reverts.
➡️Silver is a leveraged play on gold when this happens
➡️Silver miners are a leveraged play on silver
➡️Options are a leveraged play on silver minershttps://t.co/uJQlr3XAdy
In that post, I dropped what might have seemed like a throwaway line:
“I am finalizing a specific options trade structure to play this breakout, alongside a separate ‘Lotto Ticket’ trade on a French biotech firm where corporate jet tracking suggests a major buyout is imminent.”
That “Lotto Ticket” was on Abivax (ABVX).
Later that same day, in a trade alert, I explained the thesis more directly. This wasn’t a fundamentals story or a chart setup. It was entirely event-driven:
“We are taking a shot on Abivax (ABVX). The thesis here is entirely event-driven. We are looking for a buyout. The company has a promising drug pipeline (specifically Obefazimod for ulcerative colitis) that makes it an attractive target for big pharma looking to replenish their immunology portfolios.”
The spark for the trade was something traders increasingly pay attention to: corporate jet tracking.
An Eli Lilly plane had been spotted landing in Paris, where Abivax is headquartered, fueling speculation that due diligence for a deal might already be underway. Given how binary buyout rumors in biotech can be, I structured it as a defined-risk options combo rather than a straight equity bet.
I also explained why the timing mattered:
“We chose the January 2026 expiration specifically to capture the ‘Biotech Super Bowl’—the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, which runs Jan 12–15. This event is historically the launchpad for major M&A announcements.”
At the time, all of this was circumstantial. Interesting, but unconfirmed.
That changed overnight.
A French newspaper has now confirmed that executives from Eli Lilly (LLY) flew to Paris to discuss a possible merger with Abivax. The report is paywalled and in French, but thanks to a translation shared on X, the key details are now public:
“According to information obtained by La Lettre, a delegation from the American group attended a meeting on Wednesday, December 10, with the General Directorate of the Treasury, headed by Bertrand Dumont at Bercy. In preparation for this meeting, executives from the ‘big pharma’ company landed at Le Bourget airport aboard Eli Lilly’s Gulfstream G500 private jet on the evening of December 8, before departing on December 11 for Indianapolis, the headquarters of the group led by David A. Ricks.”
In other words: the plane story was real.
ABVX is up more than 11% overnight on the confirmation alone—and that’s before any formal announcement, premium discussion, or press release.
Whether this ultimately results in a completed acquisition or not remains to be seen. But this is exactly how biotech M&A stories tend to surface: first the jets, then the meetings, then the leaks, and only later the headlines.
For readers interested in how I’m actually playing this potential buyout—using a defined-risk structure designed for a binary outcome—you can see the full details in the original trade alert here:
https://blog.portfolioarmor.com/p/trade-alert-silver-slingshot
I also have a new trade alert going out later today, which includes another biotech name with asymmetric upside potential. If you’d like a heads-up when that’s published, you can subscribe to the Portfolio Armor Substack here:
Sometimes the market whispers before it speaks. This time, the planes did the talking first.
What If The Merger Doesn't Happen?
If you're long ABVX, and want to hedge in case the merger doesn't happen, you can do so with the Portfolio Armor website or iPhone app.
