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2025: Bitcoin Sets Its Anchor

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by Coinbits
Friday, Jan 02, 2026 - 22:25

Looking back, 2025 was a year of nonstop wins for bitcoin. Yet while other stores of value, like Gold, surged 66%, and even silver climbed 130%. bitcoin, in contrast, closed roughly flat. What gives?

First, a recap on some of the wins.

President Trump pardoned Ross Ulbricht on day one and signed an executive order establishing the United States Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Congress passed the GENIUS Act, creating the first federal stablecoin framework. SAB 121 was repealed, finally allowing banks to custody bitcoin. Texas became the first state to buy bitcoin with public funds, with Arizona and New Hampshire following suit.

Meanwhile, BlackRock's bitcoin ETF absorbed over $25 billion in inflows during a flat market. The number of public companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets jumped to 192, up from a fraction of that number one year ago. Bitcoin briefly surpassed Google to become the fifth-largest asset in the world.

In retrospect, we can speculate that the reason for bitcoin’s sideways price action is simply this: Conservative capital moved to gold first because that is what conservative capital does when trust erodes. Bitcoin is now recommended by mainstream financial services firms to be included in modern portfolios at a level between 2% and 5%. Bitcoin financial products have matured to the point that they are broadly accessible, and lay in wait as safe havens. At the same time, underlying problems with the fiat system are not being solved, only managed. The stage is set for 2026 to be a blockbuster.

Happy New Year!

Silver prices spike to record $82 per ounce before retreating, gold hits all-time highs as safe-haven demand accelerates

Silver reached a record high of $82 per ounce in late December before falling back to around $70 (still more than double its price from a year ago) while gold simultaneously hit new all-time highs as investors sought protection from economic uncertainty. Federal interest rate cuts, dollar weakness, and concerns about Chinese export restrictions on metals combined to drive the precious metals rally, with both silver and gold outpacing stock market returns throughout 2025.

Precious metals rally confirms fiat anxiety

The flight to precious metals reveals growing recognition that fiat currencies offer no protection against monetary instability. Expect bitcoin to benefit as the rotation from fiat to harder assets continues.

Federal Reserve proposes "skinny" payment accounts, opens door for bitcoin firms to access central bank rails

The Federal Reserve issued a request for information on creating limited "payment accounts" that would allow bitcoin and crypto-focused firms to access Fed payment systems without the full regulatory burden of traditional master accounts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller championed the proposal as supporting "innovation while keeping the payments system safe," though the accounts would carry balance caps and exclude interest payments or Fed credit access.

The rails integrate with bitcoin, not the other way around

The Fed now finds itself adapting its payment systems to accommodate bitcoin, rather than the other way around, which speaks to where the center of gravity lies in 21st century finance. In October, Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long (whose bank was famously denied a Fed master account), composed a long thread on the topic, well worth a read:

High-tax states accelerate wealthy exodus as Mamdani and Khanna push wealth grabs

New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani proposed raising top earner income tax rates to 5.9%, bringing combined state and local taxes to 16.8% before federal taxes. California Representative Ro Khanna backs a 5% wealth tax on billionaires amid threats from tech titans Peter Thiel and Larry Page to leave the state. IRS data shows New York lost the second-most wealthy residents in recent years while Florida gained the most, and the National Taxpayers Union Foundation estimates New York will lose $3.8 billion in tax revenue in 2025 from out-migration alone. Khanna’s proposal elicited a response from investor David Freidberg that has since gone viral:

At the margin, bitcoin makes wealth confiscation impossible

Politicians can raise taxes all they want, but they cannot stop wealthy individuals from moving their capital to friendlier jurisdictions. Unlike traditional assets tied to specific locations, bitcoin offers true wealth portability – if you have memorized a secret, you can transport billions of dollars across any border without permission, making aggressive tax schemes increasingly futile in a world with neutral, portable money.

Long-term holders turn net accumulators, easing major bitcoin headwind

Long-term bitcoin holders have shifted back into accumulation for the first time since July, accumulating roughly 33,000 bitcoins on a 30-day net basis as recent buyers mature into conviction holders. During the current correction from October's peak, long-term holders sold over 1 million coins – the largest distribution event from this cohort since 2019 – marking the third major wave of selling this cycle following March and November 2024.

Supply overhang clears as weak hands capitulate

The transition from distribution to accumulation may mean that the supply overhang from long-term holders has been cleared, with new buyers from the past six months crossing the 155-day threshold to become “diamond hands” themselves. This pattern mirrors the 2019 bear market low when similar long-term holder capitulation preceded bitcoin's next major rally, suggesting that weak holders have been shaken out and stronger conviction is building at current price levels.

BITCOIN ADOPTION CONTINUES

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet purchased 4,279 bitcoin for $451 million, bringing total holdings to 35,102 bitcoins as the fourth-largest publicly traded corporate holder.

Banking startup Erebor raised $350 million at a $4.35 billion valuation after receiving FDIC approval to offer traditional banking and bitcoin-related services.

JPMorgan is evaluating bitcoin spot and derivatives trading for institutional clients, driven by growing demand and easing U.S. regulations.

Bitwise CEO cited Iranian protests over the rial's record collapse as evidence that bitcoin protects people from currency debasement and economic mismanagement.

Russia's Sberbank issued the country's first bitcoin-backed loan to major miner Intelion Data, calling it a pilot transaction with potential for future expansion.

Strategy purchased 1,229 bitcoins for $108.8 million, bringing total holdings to 672,497 coins as the world's largest publicly traded corporate holder.

Grayscale expects demand for alternative stores of value, driven by government debt and upcoming U.S. regulatory clarity, to fuel bitcoin's 2026 bull market.

HOW BITCOIN WORKS

Learn one key idea about bitcoin each week. This week:

Valuing bitcoin through store-of-value market share capture

CF Benchmarks recently published a comprehensive framework for building bitcoin capital market assumptions that anyone can use to understand bitcoin's long-term value proposition. One of their most compelling approaches measures bitcoin's progress in capturing market share from the global store-of-value market – assets primarily held for wealth preservation rather than productive use.

This market is approximately $30 trillion, dominated by gold at roughly $28 trillion but including other precious metals and monetary assets. Bitcoin, despite growing from essentially zero to approximately $1.9 trillion today, represents only 6-8% of this market. The question investors now ask is not whether bitcoin will continue gaining share, but how much and how quickly.

CF Benchmarks models several scenarios using gold as a benchmark. In their base case, bitcoin reaches roughly 33% of gold's market capitalization by 2035, implying a bitcoin price of approximately $1.4 million per coin. Their bear case assumes bitcoin continues growing at its historical trend rate, reaching 16% and a price around $637,000. In the bull scenario, bitcoin achieves parity with or exceeds gold entirely, reaching $2.4-3.0 million per coin.

 

These projections rest on bitcoin's demonstrable advantages as a store of value: perfect portability, infinite divisibility, cryptographic verifiability, and a perfectly predictable supply. As these properties drive continued adoption, capital would naturally continue to flow from traditional wealth storage instruments into bitcoin.

The framework also accounts for competitive dynamics. In scenarios where bitcoin captures significant market share, growth rates for competing assets moderate as capital redirects toward superior monetary technology. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where bitcoin's advantages accelerate adoption.

Even conservative assumptions about bitcoin's market share gains imply substantial appreciation from current levels.

COIN CHECK

Based on the numbers given by the CF Benchmarks study, bitcoin’s current $1.9 trillion market cap implies roughly what share of the $30 trillion store-of-value market?

A. 2–3%
B. 6–8%
C. 12–15%
D. 20–25%

Check your answer at the end of the page.

FROM THE MEME POOL

Follow us on X for more fresh content

ANSWER

Answer: B. 6–8%

$1.9 trillion out of $30 trillion is in the neighborhood of 6 to 8%. The point is that bitcoin can be enormous in absolute terms and still be early in share-capture terms.

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
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