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Trading Through Week Two Of Epic Fury

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Friday, Mar 13, 2026 - 22:18

An anthropomorphic bull and bear observing the Iran War.

Trading Through The 2nd Week Of The War

When we wrote last week about trading through the Iran war, the market was still digesting the initial panic spike in oil and volatility. Since then, the war has continued to reshape the macro backdrop, even if not every trade we’ve placed has been directly tied to it.

The biggest development this week was the market’s transition from pure panic to a more selective repricing of risk. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader war-related disruptions across the Gulf triggered one of the largest oil supply shocks on record, with Reuters describing the outage as roughly 8 million barrels per day, or about 8% of global supply. Bahrain’s BAPCO declared force majeure after an attack on its refinery complex, and Reuters also reported broader production and refining disruptions across the region.

Policymakers responded accordingly. The International Energy Agency agreed to a 400 million barrel strategic stock release, and the U.S. said it would contribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to cool prices and stabilize markets. Reuters later reported that the IEA believed the release had already had a “strong impact” on markets.

Even so, the war remained a powerful market driver all week. U.S. stocks sold off sharply as crude approached $100 again, with investors repricing inflation risk and dialing back hopes for near-term rate cuts. By the end of the week, oil was still elevated, major U.S. equity indexes were under pressure, and the dollar was headed for a second straight weekly gain as traders continued to seek safety.

That said, one important thing also became clear: the market was no longer reacting to every headline the way it reacted to the initial shock. Oil retreated from its first panic highs after Trump hinted at a possible end to the war, and by later in the week even burning crude carriers in the Strait of Hormuz were not producing the same kind of violent upside response in oil that we saw over the weekend, which prompted our attempt to fade oil.

In other words, the market appears to be distinguishing between a real geopolitical shock and the open-ended energy catastrophe it briefly priced in at the start.

This Week's Trade Exits

Against that backdrop, here are this week’s exits:

Options

  1. Put spread on Stevanato Group (STVN -1.77%↓). Entered at a net credit of $1.54 as part of a 3-leg combo on 2/12/2026; the short March $17.50 put was assigned, I sold the resulting shares at $15.20 on 3/13/2026, and I sold the long March $15 put for $0.57 on 3/13/2026. Loss: 20% of max risk (12% on premium collected). Signal: Multibaggers.

  2. Put spread on Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS -3.45%↓). Entered at a net credit of $0.87 as part of a 3-leg combo on 12/8/2025; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 3/11/2026. Profit: 77% (return on max risk: 59%). Signal: PA Top Names.

  3. Put spread on Ecopetrol (EC 1.17%↑). Entered at a net credit of $0.24 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 2/20/2026; exited at a net debit of $0.05 on 3/12/2026. Profit: 79% (return on max risk: 7%). Signal: Market Watchers.

  4. Short call on Uranium Energy (UEC -4.40%↓). Sold-to-open for $0.64 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 2/26/2026; bought-to-close for $0.10 on 3/13/2026. Profit: 84%. Sign.al: PA Top Names

  5. Short call on Intuitive Machines (LUNR -1.29%↓). Sold-to-open for $1.36 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 2/9/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 on 3/13/2026. Profit: 85%. Signal: PA Top Names.

  6. Short call on iShares Silver Trust (SLV -4.01%↓). Sold-to-open for $4.04 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 2/2/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 on 3/13/2026. Profit: 95%. Signal: PA Top Names.

  7. Put spread on Ciena (CIEN -0.58%↓). Entered at a net credit of $3.82 as part of a 4-leg combo on 1/23/2026; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 3/9/2026. Profit: 95% (return on max risk: 35%). Signal: PA Top Names.

  8. Call spread on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Entered at a net debit of $0.90 on 2/18/2026; exited at a net credit of $3.30 on 3/9/2026. Profit: 267%. Signal: Me, ChatGPT.

  9. 3-leg combo on ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM -1.78%↓). Entered for a net debit of $1.60 on 12/5/2025; exited the April $18/$13 put spread at a net debit of $0.20 on 1/12/2026; sold the two April $20 calls for $7.50 on 3/13/2026. Profit: 356% on premium outlay (return on max risk: 130%). Signal: Market Watchers.

What We Did Wrong, And What We Did Right

This week’s exits show that our core approach is still working, even in a market trading in the shadow of war. We had one partial loss, on Stevanato Group, and that one is worth noting because it came from a setup where we deliberately loosened our tighter entry rules—our RSI and Setup-score filters—because a Multibaggers account anticipated an imminent earnings beat. The company did in fact beat on both the top and bottom lines, but the stock drifted lower anyway. That’s a useful reminder that even when the underlying thesis is directionally right, tighter entries can still matter.

Beyond that, though, the balance was strong. Eight of our nine full or partial exits this week were profitable, including a 356% gain on premium on our ZIM combo (we exited that one—an Israeli shipping company being bought out by a German one—early, in light of war risk potentially derailing that deal), a 267% gain on our VIX hedge, and a series of high-percentage gains on short calls and put spreads in names like SLV, LUNR, UEC, CIEN, EC, and NVTS. Just as importantly, many of those gains came from the same kind of structures we’ve been using to navigate this more volatile tape: trades that harvest rich near-term implied volatility to finance longer-dated upside while strictly defining risk.

That doesn’t make every trade a winner, but it does continue to tilt the odds in our favor. We’ll keep looking for names from our best sources of alpha—including Portfolio Armor’s Top Names, our Market Watchers list, and our Multibaggers list—and we’ll keep structuring trades with the same goal: defining risk, harvesting volatility when we can, and staying positioned for upside when our core themes continue to play out.

If you'd like a heads up in real time next time we place our next trade, you can subscribe to the Portfolio Armor Substack below. 

 

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