Iran's Mosaic Defense
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What has surprised us so far about this war is Iran’s ability to put up resistance despite losing much of its weaponry. With a couple of low-cost drones and fast boats, Iran can plausibly threaten Hormuz for as long as it wants. A remarkably cheap way to deprive the world of oil.
The world is witnessing a new era of drone and AI warfare in real-time.
There are different proxy groups and decentralized military forces (31 provincial commands acting autonomously with their own weapons, intelligence, and decision-making!) operating in Iran. This is called “Mosaic Defense”. As the US is finding out, it's incredibly hard to fight against, so long as the battlefield remains at home in Iran.
It’s also why killing the Supreme Leaders does nothing to the regime or its battle capabilities.
Therefore, this war is unlikely to be winnable for the US without heavy troop casualties and draining financial resources. Iran has ways of prolonging the battle, while the US has already spent $25B and years’ worth of supplies in just two weeks. The US is quickly running out of high-tech munitions — these weapons require complex manufacturing, with years of backlog from underinvestment.
At the same time, there has not been enough financial distress to push Trump to abandon objectives. Trump really has only two options: 1) Concede Hormuz, withdraw troops, and face the embarrassment of defeat; or 2) Fight on and raise the stakes with tactical nukes or ground offense.
On the other hand, Iran does not feel they’ve inflicted enough harm to extract maximum leverage. Ideally, the regime maintains control of the Strait as leverage over the world.
This is how they win the war against Israeli and American forces in the long run, despite having inferior military.
The key question is what this means for oil prices and the global economy…
We discuss all of that in this week's deep dive. Continue reading at MktContext.com...
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