Beating The S&P By 8% So Far In 2026
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
In markets, this week didn’t feel normal, and pretending it was could be dangerous.
As the market keeps falling, our relatively defensive 26 Stocks for 2026 list that we started the year with continues to outperform the S&P more and more. As of this weekend, the portfolio on an equal weighted basis is up +1% and is beating the S&P 500 for the year by +8%. The S&P is down about 7% so far this year.
The war, private credit, valuations, AI…the tone across everything I wrote about this week kept circling the same idea from different angles: something underneath the surface could be shifting, and most people — including one former financial company CEO — either don’t see it yet or don’t want to.
Just hours ago I published my bear market stock shopping list of names I’m watching closely as the market sells off:
My Bear Market Stock Shopping List
On the lighter side, I wrote about hitting what feels like peak consumer absurdity, where behavior no longer matches reality and nobody, including me, seems to question it.
I've Reached Peak Lobotomized Consumer
At the same time, the focus has shifted away from what might trigger the next market downturn to how far it spreads when it inevitably does. That distinction matters more than people think.
Fire, Already
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There’s also the simple but uncomfortable math. The government is now spending seven trillion dollars a year, and there’s no clear explanation for where it’s all going. That’s not a political statement, it’s a structural one. Systems that large don’t stay stable when nobody can trace the flows.
Ever Wonder Where $7 Trillion Goes?
Meanwhile, parts of the market that were sold as stable are starting to show stress. Private credit is beginning to look less like a safe alternative and more like something we’ve seen before, just packaged differently.
The 'Blame Game' In Private Credit Begins...
At the same time, there are still ways to position around the AI boom without paying extreme valuations, if you’re willing to look past the obvious names.
The Smarter Way To Bet On Anthropic And OpenAI
Taken together, none of these are isolated observations. They all point in the same direction. If things have felt off to you lately, you’re not imagining it.
Here’s what else is new on the blog:
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