Trading Through Week Five Of Epic Fury

The week began with a sharp relief rally. Stocks bounced hard on hopes that the Iran war might be heading toward an endgame sooner rather than later, as investors responded to conciliatory signals out of Tehran and to signs that President Trump might be willing to stop short of the most economically destructive options. That optimism helped lift risk assets and knock oil off its highs, at least temporarily.

But by midweek, the mood had darkened again. Trump’s speech suggested the war could continue for another two or three weeks, and the market focused on the lack of an obvious diplomatic offramp, and Trump's threat to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age.

🪨Back To The Stone Age🪨

The silver lining in Trump's Iran speech. https://t.co/7VJ0JhMtxl
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) April 2, 2026

Stocks sold off, oil jumped, and investors were reminded once again that this remains a headline-driven tape where sentiment can reverse violently in a matter of hours. Brent surged above $109 and WTI above $111 after the speech before giving back some of the move later.

Why We Still Think This Ends Soon

Even so, there were important positives in Trump’s remarks that the market may have discounted too heavily. He reiterated that he still expects the war to be wrapped up within a matter of weeks, not months. And he also emphasized that the U.S. has not struck Iran’s oil infrastructure, despite calling it an easy target. That matters because it suggests the White House is still trying to preserve some path for Iran to survive and rebuild after the military phase ends, rather than moving toward a maximalist strategy of permanent economic destruction.

Thursday’s developments fit that same pattern of brutal escalation mixed with hints of an eventual off-ramp. The U.S. strike on a major bridge in Iran underscored that Washington is still willing to hit military-adjacent infrastructure hard, and Iran responded with fresh threats of retaliation. At the same time, Gulf countries kept pushing diplomatic and international mechanisms to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and Oman were reportedly working on a protocol for future traffic through the strait. From an investor’s perspective, that last point may have mattered most: even amid escalation, the market got another reminder that all sides are still thinking about how this ends. U.S. stocks recovered some losses Thursday as oil came off its highs on that Strait-related news.

What Matters For Markets

Just as importantly, the military posture still does not look like the setup for a U.S. invasion of Iran. Trump’s own forecast of another two or three weeks, combined with the relatively limited visible U.S. ground commitment in theater, points to a much narrower endgame. Either Iran accepts Trump’s terms, or the U.S. and Israel continue destroying the remaining military and military-adjacent targets—including power plants—and then declare the operation complete. That is still ugly. But it is very different from the nightmare scenario of a long occupation or another Iraq-style quagmire. That difference matters for markets.

That has remained the basis of our positioning. Before this war started, we hedged against it. More recently, we have been selectively adding bullish exposure several months out, with the idea that by the time those options mature, we expect to be on the other side of this conflict. We are not trying to front-run every headline. We are trying to position for where we think this market is more likely to be by late spring and summer than it is today.

How We’re Trading This Tape

That also means we are not chasing. We have been putting in bids below our estimates of fair value and letting the market come to us. If fear around the war gives us fills at prices we like, good. If not, we pass. We used that approach again this week.

Among the names we had teed up were a semiconductor-equipment name tied to leading-edge chip manufacturing, a test-and-measurement company sitting underneath the AI and semiconductor ecosystem, a power-capacity name whose story has only become more credible since it became a big winner for us earlier this year, and a clinical-stage biotech name from our Multibaggers workflow where we thought the options were priced attractively enough to justify a defined-risk bullish shot.

🚨More War🚨

Bullish options trades on four promising setups—but only if the market comes to us.https://t.co/R8NX9yFinj
— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) April 2, 2026

The point was not to buy everything. The point was to stay selective, price-sensitive, and willing to let the market come to us.

Meanwhile, we also had several partial and full exits this week from earlier trades.

This Week’s Exits

Options

Put spread on Uranium Energy (UEC 6.20%↑). Entered at a net credit of $0.99 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 2/26/2026; exited at a net debit of $1.45 on 4/2/2026. Loss: 30% of max risk (46% on premium collected). Signal: PA Top Names.
Put spread on iShares Silver Trust (SLV 3.78%↑). Entered at a net credit of $2.32 as part of a 4-leg combo on 2/2/2026; the short 3/31/2026 $70 put was assigned, and I sold the resulting shares at $68.34 on 4/1/2026. Profit: 28% (return on max risk: 25%). Signal: PA Top Names.
Put spread on SLB (SLB -2.26%↓). Entered at a net credit of $0.70 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 3/20/2026; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 3/30/2026. Profit: 71% (return on max risk: 17%). Signal: Market Watchers.
Short call on Almonty Industries (ALM 8.62%↑). Sold-to-open for $1.43 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 2/23/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 on 3/30/2026. Profit: 86%. Signal: Market Watchers.
Put spread on Alcoa (AA 1.30%↑). Entered at a net credit of $1.79 as part of a 4-leg combo on 2/6/2026; exited at a net debit of $0.20 on 4/1/2026. Profit: 89% (return on max risk: 39%). Signal: PA Top Names.
Short call on Aeluma (ALMU 9.42%↑). Sold-to-open for $2.25 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 3/5/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 on 3/31/2026. Profit: 91%. Signal: Market Watchers.
Call spread on Lumentum Holdings (LITE 16.54%↑). Bought for $2.10 as part of a 4-leg combo on 1/14/2026; exited the put spread at a net debit of $0.10 on 2/4/2026, and sold the call spread for $16.00 on 4/1/2026. Profit: 662% (return on max risk: 185%). Signal: PA Top Names.

What This Week’s Exits Showed

This week’s exits were a good reminder of why we use these structures in the first place. Even in a market dominated by war headlines, sharp reversals, and elevated volatility, several of our downside-financing legs still worked the way they were supposed to: we were able to peel off put spreads and short calls for solid gains while keeping the longer-dated bullish exposure alive when warranted.

The standout this week was a photonics name where the put spread came off early for almost nothing, and the remaining call spread ultimately delivered a very large gain. The blemish was a uranium name where the near-term downside leg moved against us into expiration. More broadly, though, the lesson was the same as in prior weeks of Epic Fury: our best results tend to come when we combine a strong underlying thesis with disciplined entry filters and preset exit orders, and then let the structure do its work.

If you'd like a heads up in real time when we place our next trades, you can sign up for our trading Substack/occasional email list below.

And if you think we're wrong about the war winding down, and you want to hedge against it getting worse, you can use our website or iPhone app to scan for the optimal hedges for that.

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