Systemic Market Risks No One Sees Coming...
My goal has always been the same: identify the stories beneath the stories and try to beat the market. So far this year the blog’s 26 stocks to watch are beating the S&P by more than 9% on an average, equal weighted basis.
This week, I looked at a market that seems increasingly detached from reality.
I explored risks hiding in plain sight. From a potentially systemic vulnerability developing around SpaceX’s valuation…
SpaceX Could Get Dangerously Systemic
…to a crypto risk few investors are discussing, with bitcoin hovering near $65,000, down about 50% over the last year and the mood across crypto becoming increasingly subdued lately.…
The Crypto Risk No One Is Discussing
The common thread is the same: complacency. When markets become convinced that prices only move in one direction, the biggest dangers are often the ones nobody is looking for. There’s also the bond market sell-off and what is called the “Titanic Effect”…
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Bond Market Sell Off: Welcome To The “Titanic Effect”
…to the growing disconnect between inflation, monetary policy, and investor expectations, I examined why many of the signals flashing beneath the surface are being ignored. I also dug into why nearly every major monetary policy rule suggests the Fed should be raising rates—not cutting them.
Nearly All Monetary Rules Say The Fed Should Raise Rates
I also wrote about the broader economic backdrop, including Americans’ dwindling savings, inequality, and the strange reality that the only bear case many investors seem willing to entertain is outright extinction.
The Only Bear Case Left Is Extinction
As always, my goal is to separate narrative from reality and focus on what the data—and human behavior—are telling us.
Here’s what else is new on the blog:
An Open Letter To Elizabeth Warren About Trillionaires And Inequality
Since Lockdowns, A 12% GDP Loss; Half Of US Dollar Purchasing Power Stolen
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