"AI Mania" Is About To End: Harris Kupperman
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
I’ve long admired Harris Kupperman, the founder of Praetorian Capital, for his ability to cut through noise and spot big-picture themes before they become consensus.
Harris just released his thoughts on markets, AI and his positions in his Q2 investor letter, which I’m happy to share with my subscribers.
n his most recent letter, Harris talks about the surprising market reaction to the Middle East war, the fund’s recent underperformance, and why he still believes the global economy remains trapped in a system of economic “Feudalism.”
He also explains why the fund missed the AI boom, where he now sees second-order opportunities, and how he is positioning for a potential slowdown in AI spending and a broader market decline (photos added by QTR for emphasis).
Markets Are Complex
Six months ago, if you had asked me what would happen during a Mid-East war, I’d have guessed that gold and US Treasuries would rally on a global flight to safety. Nope, they declined—markets are complex. I would have guessed that if we drew more than a billion barrels of global commercial inventories, oil would scream out of control. Nope, it’s effectively unchanged since the conflict began—markets are complex. If you asked me how our core book would do, I’d have told you that we’d likely outperform given our heavy weighting towards volatility and inflation beneficiaries. Nope, we’ve given up ground—markets are complex.
I’ve always been of the view that in the short run, markets can trade at literally any price level. Throughout my career, I have repeatedly been humbled by securities that have exceeded even my wildest expectations of where they could trade. While the overall decline in our portfolio was quite moderate by this Fund’s standards, I remain humbled, as I really would have expected our book to have performed better in a Mid-East war that saw increased volatility and inflation readings. Markets are complex.
When Hormuz was closed, some unique trends happened...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE HERE).

