Weak Jobs Meet Strong Earnings

A Rally With Two Supports

Friday gave stocks an unusual two-part tailwind. Employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs in July, while the May and June payroll figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. That weaker labor-market signal reduced the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.64%.

At the same time, second-quarter earnings gave investors a fundamental reason to keep buying. With nearly 90% of the S&P 500 having reported, overall profit growth is tracking near 50%—the strongest since 2021.

The S&P 500 gained 0.6% Friday and closed at a record. The Dow rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 1.3%. For the week, the three indexes gained 3.6%, 3%, and 5.2%, respectively.

The tradeoff remains visible. A softer labor market reduces rate pressure while also weakening the growth outlook. Brent crude rose 1.3% Friday to $83.55 after jumping 3.8% Thursday, keeping the war with Iran in the inflation picture. Next week’s consumer-price report will test whether Friday’s bond-market relief can last.

The Rankings And Technicals Are Aligning Again

This week’s Portfolio Armor Top Names leaned decisively toward the AI infrastructure stack. The first six names spanned compute, cloud observability, memory, data-center connectivity, and storage. Five of those six carried potential-return estimates of at least 80% over the next six months.

The timing is the more important development. Chip and memory stocks continued to appear in our rankings during much of July’s momentum correction, but most failed the technical screens we use for options entries. That kept us from opening new trades on them after the first week of July.

This week, the rankings and technicals began to align again. Our #1 name had already reported strong earnings and pulled back before clearing our screens. Another post-earnings AI infrastructure name ranked fifth, although its sharp decline Thursday still called for fresh technical confirmation.

That shift fits the operating evidence we reviewed in The AI Buildout Keeps Accelerating.

Demand is spreading through compute, memory, storage, optics, timing, and power, while the stocks supplying those bottlenecks remain volatile. Portfolio Armor’s rankings help identify six-month upside; our technical screens help distinguish a prospective bargain from a falling knife.

How We Traded It

Monday: In Selloffs Improve Two Setups, a catalyst-driven hybrid entered for a net credit. A lower-risk add-on tied to an imminent biotech readout didn’t fill.

Tuesday: None of the three orders in our main alert filled at our prices, and we left them alone. Later that day, a short-term earnings calendar filled at a $5.75 net debit.

Wednesday: Two of three orders filled. A Top Names hybrid entered for a net credit, and a Market Watchers calendar filled at our maximum debit. A liquid post-earnings recovery order didn’t fill.

Thursday: A short-term earnings calendar filled below our maximum debit. A longer-dated Top Names combo didn’t fill at our required credit.

Friday: Both defined-risk trades in Two Collapses, Two Fresh Catalysts filled in my account. One of my fills used a different short-call strike from the published structure; I disclosed that execution error in the alert, while the published trade remained unchanged.

Exits

Friday’s Exits post recorded eleven partial and full options exits: ten winners and one defined loss.

The week’s only loss was a long call with seven days remaining and no known catalyst before expiration. We sold it for $1.08, realizing a loss equal to 12% of the original trade’s max risk while leaving the put spread open. A short-term calendar produced the contrasting result: after buying back its short call, we sold the remaining long call for $7.20 and completed the trade for a 22% profit.

Those two exits illustrate the tiered method we now use for uncapped long options. With more time or a meaningful catalyst remaining, we can give a model-based runner target room to work. With a week or less and no catalyst, we give that target about one session before moving toward the best realistically obtainable price.

Stocks or Exchange Traded Products

None.

Options

1. Long call on Novo Nordisk (NVO 0.10%↑). Bought-to-open the August 14th, 2026 $47 call for $1.64 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 8/3/2026; sold-to-close for $1.08 on 8/7/2026. Loss: 12% of max risk (34% on premium outlay). Signal: Multibaggers.

2. Diagonal call calendar on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 16.62%↑). Entered at a $5.75 net debit on 8/4/2026; bought-to-close the short August 7th, 2026 $135 call for $0.20 on 8/6/2026 and sold-to-close the long August 14th, 2026 $125 call for $7.20 on 8/7/2026. Profit: 22%. Signal: Special Situation.

3. Short calls on Novo Nordisk (NVO 0.10%↑). Sold-to-open the August 7th, 2026 $51 call for $0.31 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 8/3/2026; bought-to-close for $0.10 on 8/4/2026. Profit: 68% on premium collected. Signal: Multibaggers.

4. Short puts on Precigen (PGEN 2.14%↑). Sold-to-open the October 16th, 2026 $4 puts for $0.59 per contract as part of a risk-reversal on 5/14/2026; bought-to-close for $0.10 per contract on 8/5/2026. Profit: 83% on premium collected. Signal: Market Watchers.

5. Short calls on Oscar Health (OSCR 5.41%↑). Sold-to-open the August 7th, 2026 $35 calls for an average $0.60 per contract as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 8/5/2026; bought-to-close for $0.05 per contract on 8/6/2026. Profit: 92% on premium collected. Signal: Top Names.

6. Short calls on CLEAR Secure (YOU -4.07%↓). Sold-to-open the August 21st, 2026 $75 call for $2.79 per contract as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 5/20/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 per contract on 8/5/2026. Profit: 93% on premium collected. Signal: Market Watchers.

7. Short puts on Palantir Technologies (PLTR 7.20%↑) . Sold-to-open the August 7th, 2026 $110 put for $2.12 as part of a 4-leg inverted hybrid combo on 7/29/2026; bought-to-close for $0.15 on 8/4/2026. Profit: 93% on premium collected. Signal: Bearish Rally Failure.

8. Short calls on CF Industries (CF 0.64%↑). Sold-to-open the August 21st, 2026 $140 call for $7.77 as part of a 4-leg hybrid combo on 4/23/2026; bought-to-close for $0.20 on 8/5/2026. Profit: 97% on premium collected. Signal: Top Names.

9. Short calls on Ouster (OUST -5.86%↓). Sold-to-open two August 7th, 2026 $50 calls for $1.71 per contract as part of a diagonal call calendar on 8/6/2026; expired out-of-the-money on 8/7/2026. Profit: 100% on premium collected. Signal: Market Watchers.

10. Long calls on Compass Pathways (CMPS -0.77%↓). Bought-to-open two August 21st, 2026 $8 calls for $2.52 per contract as part of a 3-leg combo on 1/28/2026; sold-to-close one for $5.40 on 8/5/2026. Profit: 114% on premium paid. Signal: Multibaggers.

11. 4-leg combo on ATI (ATI 2.46%↑). Entered for a $1.50 net debit on 3/24/2026; exited the May 15th, 2026 $130–$125 put spread for a $0.20 net debit on 4/21/2026 and the October 16th, 2026 $175–$185 call spread for an $8.00 net credit on 8/6/2026. Profit: 420% on premium outlay (95% of max risk). Signal: Top Names.

The Next Test

The week ended with stocks at records, Treasury yields lower, and our AI-heavy rankings beginning to receive technical confirmation. The next test is whether inflation data and oil allow that combination to persist.

We’ll keep looking for names where six-month potential return, technical strength, a current catalyst, and attractive option pricing line up. If you want a heads up when we place them, and free access to the trades, you can sign up for our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

And if you want to cover your ass(ets), you can use the Portfolio Armor iPhone app.