A Wild Day In Biotech
A Wild Day In Biotech
Monday brought three big moves in our biotech exposure.
Tenax Therapeutics (TENX 0.00%↑) plunged nearly 90% after its Phase 3 LEVEL trial of TNX-103 missed both its primary endpoint and its key secondary endpoint. AbCellera Biologics (ABCL 0.00%↑) moved sharply in the other direction after ABCL635 reduced the frequency and severity of menopausal vasomotor symptoms in a Phase 2 trial while maintaining a favorable tolerability profile. 10x Genomics (TXG 0.00%↑) jumped 11.8%, extending its post-earnings move after the company raised full-year revenue guidance and reported strong early demand for its Atera platform.
It looks as if we’re going to take a total loss on our TENX trade. On ABCL and TXG, however, we notched a partial win and a full win, respectively:
Calls on AbCellera Biologics (ABCL). Bought the January 15th, 2027 $6 calls for an average cost of $1.27 as part of a 3-leg combo on 5/21/2026; sold half for $3.75 on 8/10/2026. Profit: 196% on premium outlay (86% on max risk). Signal: Multibaggers.
3-leg combo on 10x Genomics (TXG). Entered the November 20th, 2026 $25 call/$20–$15 put-spread combo for a net debit of $2.25 on 5/15/2026; exited the put spread for a net debit of $0.20 on 7/22/2026 and sold the call for $31.90 on 8/10/2026. Profit: 1,309% on premium outlay (380% on max risk). Signal: Multibaggers.
Two Lessons From TENX
Clinical-stage biotechs are often binary trades. Some trials will fail, and no amount of screening can make every readout go our way. Even so, TENX offered two useful process lessons.
First, several biotech-focused accounts on our Market Watchers X list were wary of TENX before Monday’s readout. We’re now adding an advanced X search across those specialist accounts to our pre-trade work on clinical binaries. We ran that check on both of today’s candidates.
Second, the put-spread financing deserves more weight in a true binary. With an ordinary stock, a lower put spread can matter because the shares might drift down without collapsing. When a pivotal clinical catalyst fails, the stock may blow through either spread. If both alternatives are $5 wide, the higher-strike spread can collect more premium and reduce the net capital at risk.
That’s what we’ve changed in the oncology trade that didn’t fill yesterday. The company is developing a bifunctional therapy for head-and-neck cancer, with a pivotal interim analysis expected next year. We’ve moved the put spread $5 higher, preserving its width while improving the financing. Today’s second trade is a multi-program biotech with two separate clinical readouts expected later this year, plus regulatory optionality on another program.
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