Analyzing President Trump’s Recent Stock Trades

Multiple outlets published a look at President Donald Trump’s stock trades for June, a sprawling disclosure encompassing more than 1,000 purchases and sales across stocks, bonds and ETFs.

The obvious temptation is to comb through every line looking for some hidden message about what Trump thinks markets, interest rates or individual companies are about to do. I think there is a more useful way to look at it: ignore most of the tiny transactions, focus on where the biggest chunks of money appear to have moved, and see whether any broader themes emerge.

Before doing that, there are some caveats. These trades should not necessarily be interpreted as Trump personally sitting behind a computer deciding to buy one name on Tuesday and sell another on Wednesday. The White House has previously said Trump’s assets are held in a trust managed by his children, and reporting on his disclosures has indicated that at least some of the activity comes from independently managed accounts using systematic investment strategies.

The government disclosure also gives us ranges rather than exact transaction amounts, and it does not tell us the size of Trump’s total position in each security before or after a transaction. In other words, we are looking through a very foggy window at portfolio activity, not reading Trump’s personal trading diary.

With that qualification firmly in place, there are still some interesting patterns in where the biggest money moved...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE HERE).

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