Interest Rates Approaching KEY LEVEL

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The 10yr is our main focus. It NEEDS to be controlled or it will certainly put pressure on equities.

Massively Underestimated AI Impact: Most “investors” are still underestimating the total impact that AI will have within the next few years. Remember, most “investors” and “market participants” have no clue what they are doing and just regurgitate the news like birds. They are trained with a bottom-up mindset which can lead to a lot of confusion when macro forces take over markets.

We are entering a world now where you need to assume that everything hackable will get hacked by AI autonomous agents. During the OpenAI/Hugging Face hack, hundreds of AI agents took control of an ENTIRE training cluster in a datacenter so they needed to shut it down and restart it from scratch. Story Here
Bitcoin/Gold/Metals&Mining have been the leaders since the last FOMC meeting.
Today is Tim Cook’s last day at Apple. Bullish.
Sealed Magic The Gathering is still the best performing asset YTD.
Futures markets price in a 60% chance of a Sept hike from the Fed and a 90% chance of a hike this year.

Check out our UPDATED WATCHLIST if you want to see specific names.

Levels on the S&P

We have been posting this chart for 3 years. 4.8% on the 10yr is the level to watch.

Great chart from Fidelity on Bitcoin. Uptrend!

Here is the weekly relative rotation chart.

Learn Something

IMPORTANT: Correlations between asset classes are asymmetrical; they behave differently in good times versus bad. Diversification tends to work well when you don’t want it to (during rallies), but it fails to protect us during downturns. This challenges the traditional investment strategy of diversification, highlighting the need for a more nuanced approach to managing portfolio risk, especially in volatile markets.

You need to think outside the box. The key is to focus on what most “investors” expect, and then identify where the future might look different from that consensus. That’s how you make money real money. The obvious is obviously wrong.

Return always wants its risk payment.

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