TL;DR
- The uranium term price has reached a record $96/lb, surpassing the previous $95/lb high set in 2007. Spot uranium is also firm near $89.60/lb, up roughly 10% year to date, despite relatively thin summer trading volumes.
TD Cowen sees more room for prices to run if supply tightens. The bank’s long-term uranium forecast is $95/lb, meaning the current term price has already moved above its model. It argues that inflation since 2007 makes the nominal record less imposing than it first appears.
The long-term demand picture remains increasingly constructive. TD Cowen forecasts global uranium demand rising from about 205 million pounds in 2026 to 322 million pounds by 2035, while total supply reaches only 281 million pounds, implying a 42-million-pound deficit in 2035.
Policy and supply developments are leaning bullish. Washington is accelerating advanced-reactor and fuel-cycle projects, India is opening nuclear generation to private investment, and Kazatomprom has delayed a key sulfuric-acid facility that could affect 2027 uranium production. TD Cowen names Cameco as its top uranium equity pick and Denison Mines as its preferred small/mid-cap name.
Uranium Breaks Its 2007 Record as Nuclear Demand Builds
TD Cowen Sees Firm Pricing, Expanding Reactor Demand and Potential Supply Constraints
The current term price is also slightly above TD Cowen’s own $95/lb long-term uranium assumption. The bank notes that the comparison with 2007 is nominal, and that the significant inflation accumulated since then leaves room for both spot and term prices to move higher if the market shifts more materially into deficit.
Demand Continues to Grow
Mine and secondary supply are also expected to increase, but the balance becomes tighter toward the end of the forecast period. Total supply rises from about 204 million pounds in 2026 to a peak of 298 million pounds in 2034 before falling to 281 million pounds in 2035. Against projected demand of 322 million pounds, TD Cowen forecasts a 42-million-pound deficit in 2035.
Long-term contracting matters because nuclear utilities typically secure fuel well before it is required. Uranium procurement also sits within a broader fuel cycle that includes conversion, enrichment and fabrication, so utilities must consider availability across several stages rather than simply relying on the spot uranium market.
Uranium Needs to Go Higher.https://t.co/7YJn1SMmB1
— VBL’s Ghost (@Sorenthek) September 10, 2026
That makes the record term price particularly relevant. It reflects the price at which longer-duration supply is being secured rather than only the cost of immediately available material.
Kazatomprom Adds Supply Uncertainty
The Firm also highlights a potential supply issue involving Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer. The company maintained its preliminary 2026 production and sales guidance in its first-half results, but announced a six-to-12-month delay to the planned TQZ sulfuric-acid plant.
The facility had been expected to begin operating in the first quarter of 2027 but is now scheduled for sometime between the third quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028 following a regulatory suspension of construction. Sulfuric acid is an important input for Kazakhstan’s in-situ recovery operations, and TD Cowen says a downward revision to 2027 uranium output is possible, although the eventual effect remains uncertain.