This Stock Market Is Running Out Of Road...

What a week. A new rate hike cycle starts. AI has not yet taken over the world. Crude broke above $100/barrel again momentarily. And while all hell isn’t breaking loose, it sure feels like it won’t be long at this point, especially with midterms coming up.

If I’m right about a meaningful market selloff coming, I don’t want to spend the panic figuring out what I want to own. This week I made a working shopping list of stocks, ETFs and sectors I’d start watching when valuations finally get more interesting.

14 Stocks I’d Watch During A Market Selloff

And Wednesday’s Fed meeting didn’t create my crash thesis, but I think it was another waypoint along the path. I think we could see a serious break in markets over the next 6–10 months. The latest shift in monetary policy only adds another catalyst.

This Is Where Things Get Nasty

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Meanwhile, the debate over AI development is moving beyond Silicon Valley and into electoral politics. I looked at the competing political arguments around regulation and what the policy fight could mean for markets.

AI Just Became A Massive Midterm Election Issue

On top of that, the federal government is already running enormous deficits. I examined the fiscal arithmetic behind proposals for $5,000 “dividend” checks and why financing another large round of payments would add substantially to federal borrowing.

We Can’t Afford $5,000 “Dividend” Checks

And this week the ole’ Q-Man temporarily appointed himself CEO of Nike. I laid out five things I’d do to try to restore the brand, refocus the company and stop overcomplicating what should be one of the simplest consumer businesses on Earth.

Dear Nike, Here’s How You Save Your Company

Last week I pointed out one “dark horse” way to potentially get short exposure to the market in an area most people wouldn’t look first.

A Dark Horse Way To Short The Market

And noted that Japanese life insurers are sitting on nearly $200 billion in unrealized bond losses. I explained why Japan’s enormous footprint in global fixed income could make this much more than a Japanese problem:

Japan’s Life Insurers Look Like Silicon Valley Bank And 2008 AIG Combined

And in one of the finer examples of “valuation by hallucination” I think I’ve ever seen, Cathie Wood’s latest SpaceX math assumes a future with 27 Starship launches per day, generating roughly $1 billion in revenue per launch. I went through the assumptions:

Cathie Wood’s $10 Trillion SpaceX Fantasy

Finally, I’ve been bullish on defense and aerospace for years because I think the world is entering a prolonged period of higher military spending, inventory replenishment and strategic competition. New Pentagon developments offered another piece of evidence for that thesis…but in a different sector than most would expect:

The Pentagon Just Confirmed One Of My Biggest Investment Theses

Here’s some more of my latest idea-driven content:

And here’s what else is new on the blog:

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