Saudi Arabia quits China-led cross-border currency platform

Editorial comment up front: ultimately this is in part an article using news that is over a year old; perhaps in reference to the upcoming Xi/Trump negotiations.

But let’s get to the facts which are very important and somewhat truncated in the FT story

 

Saudi Arabia has withdrawn from the now famous, or infamous, mBridge project. It is characterized as the “China-led central bank digital currency platform” designed to make cross-border payments faster, cheaper, and less reliant on the dollar.

Let me correct that characterization.

It is China-led, but mBridge is essentially a BRICS project. The pure China-led project is CIPS, China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. mBridge is a joint project involving other countries. China led it, but China is not the only player in it.

Saudi Arabia is now saying that its participation was always limited and ended after completing its proof of concept in May 2025. I am pretty sure we reported the proof-of-concept testing back in May 2025. They tested it, completed it, and then ended their participation. That part was underreported at the time, and frankly we barely reported it ourselves because it was not treated as a particularly big deal.

The FT now adds that Saudi Arabia reportedly continues “engaging more discreetly." So put simply: Saudi Arabia is no longer an mBridge member.

mBridge is part of China’s push to build alternative cross-border payment infrastructure. I emphasize “part of.” It is not the major part, but it is a part of it.

The politics around this remain sensitive, and the FT makes sure we know that. We are told we should draw no broader inference from the Saudi decision, but the FT itself is clearly drawing an inference from it.

So here is our take.

Number one: this is obviously not bearish for the petrodollar, but its not long-term bullish either.

If the BRICS project is losing participation, that matters. But it is not new information. It is new information only in the sense that the FT is making a big deal out of it today. The Saudis have been hedging their bets with the United States for a long time. That relationship is all about negotiation.

Number two: this is very bullish for CIPS, the Chinese cross-border payment system.

CIPS benefits from mBridge collapsing, being tossed aside, being weakened, or simply becoming less important.

And the final point is that this is 110% consistent, if it is possible to be more than 100%, with what we have been saying for the last two months.

Going back to our onshore contact in China, China is becoming a little disillusioned with BRICS, with the pace of progress among the other members, and with the lack of progress in some of their partnership efforts.

Founders: BRICS Conversation with Mainland Source

Sep 4

Relations among the BRICS countries have become rather delicate over the past six months or so. My instinct is that they are currently at a low point.
Consequently, China appears to have lost some interest in BRICS over the past six months and has taken few proactive steps. BRICS has also been marginalized in public discourse. Very few articles discuss it, and official news outlets hardly mention it.

Read full story

That is why, at the BRICS summit, China was basically, in our opinion, scolding the other members for not pushing back harder on the Iran war and trying to get that war stopped.

It is why China does not really give a shit about mBridge.

It is why the Hong Kong hub is being emphasized.

The Hong Kong gold hub is the answer to the failure of the SGEI project, which was intended to connect vaults outside China. Instead of connecting all of those external vaults, they are now bringing the vaulting infrastructure into Hong Kong and connecting it there.

That is bullish for CIPS.

The Hong Kong renminbi project, combined with gold, is going to bolster the use of yuan payments through the CIPS system directly between Hong Kong and China.

So here is the summary of the summary.

The FT wrote an article about mBridge. The takeaway will be that mBridge is being abandoned, that this is bullish for the petrodollar, bearish for China, and evidence that a China-led project is failing.

You know what? None of that is necessarily untrue.

Saudis Quit Brics Project; What it Meanshttps://t.co/H24AVTQwYR

— VBL’s Ghost (@Sorenthek) September 21, 2026

But what is more important is that mBridge has always been a hedge alongside China’s CIPS system.

It is true that China wants a stronger role in the global financial system. It is true that the yuan is going to be on the global stage. What is changing is the venue through which that happens.

It is now less likely to happen through mBridge than it appeared a year or a year and a half ago.

They are changing venues. They are not changing the plan.

Ultimately, this is more bullish for CIPS, while taking some pressure off the petrodollar in the short term.