The Stock Market Is Ignoring A Five Alarm Fire

Another week where everything is fine in markets! You know…except for everything.

Just hours ago I wrote about how market breadth is deteriorating at a historic pace as yields surge, flashing huge warning signals under indexes powered by just a handful of stocks.

Everything Is Fine, Except For Everything

Oh, and did I mentioned that after years of hype, trillion-dollar valuations and seemingly limitless spending, we’re finally getting a better look at the economics behind the AI boom. And they are atrocious…

It’s Official: The AI Emperor Has No Clothes

🔥 85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY. I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off forever

Meanwhile, the bond market continues to send a message that equity investors don’t seem particularly interested in hearing. That message is that we are at the end of a decades long easy money fairy tale:

The Easy Money Fairy Tale Is About To End Violently

Forward rates recently reached a 16-year high, and one analyst thinks 5% Treasury yields could become the new normal. If that’s right, the implications for valuations, leverage, refinancing and the entire post-2008 easy-money playbook are enormous.

Bonds Are About To Crash The Stock Market

And even if bonds start to recover…perhaps if an actual deal is reached with Iran instead of a bullshit headline, I still think the AI trade is on its last legs.

And let us not forget we are essentially seeing a bank run in private credit right now while the commercial real estate market also faces stress.

Bonds Just Killed The Easy Money Era For Good

Also this past week, I looked at the push to introduce leverage into an industry that already blurs the line between investing, speculation and outright gambling, and why adding borrowed money to the equation could dramatically raise the stakes.

Adding Leverage To America’s Gambling Problem

And how I’m prepping for a market turn lower is by making sure I know what areas I’d be looking to go shopping in:

14 Stocks I’d Watch During A Market Selloff

This is a new idea I wrote about this week:

A Stock With A Potential $500 Million Earnings Surprise

And some other reads on what I’d be watching during a crash:

And some more “must reads” heading into the new month ahead:

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and very often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning, meaning if I’m long I could sell or if I’m short I could cover at any time. Positions can change immediately. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning.

I also may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and own things I’m bearish on. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any or all facts and figures included in this article though I made an effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional, which I am not.

Contributor posts, guest posts and curated posts have been hand selected by me, but have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author or reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

Since 2026, I have been making an attempt to no longer actively trade as much as I once did (read my story here). In an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from most fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

My goal is for my investing/saving to be done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything, at any point.

You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. Again, I get shit wrong a lot, both in the market and in life, but am trying my best. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier. Hence, I am a writer. I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Many times I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Thanks, you’ve been a great crowd and don’t forget to tip your servers.

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.

Today's Top Stories