The AI Stock Crash Is Only Just Beginning...

What an end to a wild week. The signs of a market unraveling keep coming…I’m not rushing to buy the dip, but one corner of tech could emerge from the AI wreckage with a much longer runway than investors realize.

The Tech Trade Nobody Notices Yet...But Will

In fact on Friday I wrote about why tech and semis may only be a part of what’s worth paying attention to:

Tech Isn’t The Only Problem...

This week I also emphasized how important Nvidia earnings are going to be — and how’s is basically negotiable that they beat earnings at this point…

The World Will End If Nvidia Misses Earnings

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I noted Thursday about how the commercial real estate market is on the brink:

The Commercial Real Estate Crisis Is Far From Over

On Wednesday I wanted to highlight the bull case on one stock that’s been crashing so far this year by almost -60%:

The Bull Case Behind One Crashing Stock

And this week I noted that Wall Street has found another way to manufacture earnings growth: count the gains, bury the losses, and hope nobody looks too closely. I dig into the accounting gymnastics surrounding the AI boom, including how enormous losses at companies like Anthropic can translate into reported gains for their investors.

The Dirty Accounting Behind The AI Bubble

It’s another example of the financial engineering I believe is helping keep the AI bubble inflated.

And after watching Brazilian markets react violently to political developments this week, I started thinking about what might happen if Democrats retake Congress in the midterms. In my opinion, U.S. markets have spent the last couple of years enjoying an extraordinarily permissive regulatory environment. A meaningful shift in political power could change that calculus overnight and here’s six or seven ways I think markets could be impacted by midterms:

Could Democrats Crash This Market?

I also took a brief departure from financial markets to address something that has been driving me absolutely insane: the epidemic of social media “pranksters” harassing complete strangers for clicks. Somewhere along the way, humiliating innocent people became a legitimate business model, and apparently basic human decency became optional. I explain why I think this is yet another symptom of societal collapse:

It’s Not A “Prank”, You’re Just An Asshole

And for all the breathless warnings about artificial intelligence, it’s worth remembering that technological progress is supposed to improve human life, not become something we’re perpetually terrified of. One piece from FEE looks at the growing disconnect between AI’s potential benefits and the fear surrounding its development, and why the conversation deserves more nuance than the usual apocalyptic headlines:

Who’s Afraid of AI?

And having followed Apple for nearly three decades, including working for the company during the original iPhone launch, I’m increasingly concerned that the company is losing the innovative instincts that made it extraordinary. Its products are becoming less inspiring while its valuation remains near 40 times earnings. I explain why that combination should make shareholders uncomfortable, particularly if Apple’s reputation is beginning to outrun its actual accomplishments.

Apple Is Losing Its Luster

Finally, I revisit one of my longstanding macro theses: gold and gold miners could get absolutely demolished during a broader market liquidation before eventually staging a spectacular recovery. Forced selling, liquidity shortages, and indiscriminate deleveraging can punish even the assets investors ultimately want to own. I explain why a nasty correction in precious metals wouldn’t necessarily invalidate my bullish long-term outlook. In fact, it could be part of the setup.

Gold Could Crash...Before It Doubles

That’s the week in a nutshell: questionable accounting, political risk, expensive stocks, financial repression, gold, and the occasional asshole with a smartphone.

In other words, business as usual.

Here’s what else is new on the blog:

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