The Treasury Is Now A Shadow Federal Reserve

The Treasury’s preference for funding with bills is bringing it closer to becoming a de facto issuer of central bank money, leaving the entire state balance sheet sensitive to the overnight rate...


September Is About Rates, Software, & Seasonality

This is a month when traders typically brace for further volatility... With the VIX currently around the 15 handle, and typically rising to 20 in September, having a few hedges in place might not be a bad thing.


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Futures Swing As Global Bond Yields Follow Oil Tick For Tick

“The new baseline seems to be that the Fed will, after all, hike rates in September, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it reasonably clear that inflation is not falling quickly enough to target and, given a reasonably strong economy, the Fed will need to act.”