Continuing Claims Rose Last Week, 'Unadjusted' Initial Claims At Jan Highs

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week fell from 237k the prior week to 228k (well below the 240k exp) - the lowest since May. However, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, initial claims remain at the highest since January...

Source: Bloomberg

California and Georgia saw the biggest rise in initial claims last week while Michigan and Kentucky saw declines...

However, continuing claims rose from 1.721mm to 1.754mm Americans...

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg's Simon White notes, WARN notices - which give a lead on unemployment claims - have fallen somewhat from their recent peak. However, the drop does not yet look by enough to throw doubt on the current steadily rising trend in claims.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Small Businesses continue to suffer from poor credit availability, which historically has been a good leading signal for the labor market...

Source: Bloomberg

How's that for 'long and variable' lagged monetary policy impact?