Headline US Retail Sales Disappoints In April, Slowest Annual Growth Since May 2020
Weak tax refunds were expected to weigh on retail spending going forward, but perhaps not quite yet as expectations were for a MoM rebound from March's unexpected decline with omnciscient BofA forecasting around consensus:
And rebound it did, but the headline print was disappointing - up only 0.4% MoM (vs +0.8% MoM exp) - but core and control group data (which fits into GDP calcs) were better than expected...
Retail Sales 0.4%, Exp. 0.8%
Retail Sales ex Auto 0.4%, Exp. 0.4%
Retail Sales Control Group 0.7%, Exp. 0.3%
Prior months were revised little stronger:
March Retail sales -1.0%, Revised to -0.7%
March Retail sales ex auto -0.8%. Revised to -0.5%
March Retail sales control group -0.3%, Revised to -0.4%
What is more notable is that (nominal) retail sales rose just 1.6% YoY (well below inflation) - the slowest since May 2020 - suggesting the consumer is feeling the pinch in a big way...
Source: Bloomberg
All of the YoY measures are at their slowest pace since COVID lockdowns...
Under the hood, 7 out of 13 retail categories rose last month.
The value of motor vehicle sales increased 0.4%, while receipts at gasoline stations fell 0.8%...
The market seems most focus on the Control Group's beat with 10Y Yields up 4bps post-date.
