'Real' Retail Sales Rise For 11th Straight Month In August

'Brace yourself for a big beat' is the message from BofA's almost omniscient analysts ahead of this morning's retail sales print for August with the GDP-driving Control Group expected to be particularly hot...

...and once again they nailed it with headline retail sales rising 0.6% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third strong monthly rise in a row (with July's print revised stronger) - leading to a 5.0% YoY rise...

Source: Bloomberg

Core retail sales growth YoY is also surging...

Source: Bloomberg

Onleine sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing...

Source: Bloomberg

Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline..

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY (the 11th straight month of annual gains in real spending)

Source: Bloomberg

The most notable retail sales cohort - the Control Group - which feeds directly into the GDP calculation, surged 0.7% MoM (well above the 0.4% MoM expected) and up 5.9% YoY. Of course, this is nominal, but still a strong signal for the consumer.

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly a picture of a struggling consumer deal with hyperinflationary Trump tariffs?