Retailers Expect A Weaker Holiday Season

This is not what Bidenomics promised...

Yesterday, we highlighted the fact that retail job cuts were the highest since 2020.

Amid the early holiday shopping season, retailers have cut 72,182 jobs through October, a 258% increase from the 20,191 jobs eliminated in 2022, according to a new report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

This marks the most significant number of job cuts since retailers cut 179,520 jobs in October 2020.

Additionally, corporate America is delivering the bleakest sales reports in four years this earnings season, a sign that weakening consumer demand is limiting companies’ ability to raise prices further.

“We heard a lot of caution in managements’ guidance during the season and that’s exactly what we are watching for — weaker sales and margins compression as pricing power wanes,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.

“For now, consumer and corporates still have access to credit, but it’s getting harder and more expensive. Once that dries out, we would see more pain.”

Not a pretty picture, but it gets worse...

As Apollo's Torsten Sløk highlighted this week, hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season.

The BLS defines holiday sectors as furniture, electronics, personal care, clothing, sporting goods, general merchandise stores, miscellaneous store retailers (e.g., florists, office supply stores, gift shops, and pet shops), and non-store retailers (e.g., online shopping and mail-order houses, vending machine operators, and direct store establishments).

This soft outlook is consistent with growing inventories at many retailers.