US Retail Sales Jumped Most In 8 Months In February

Bank of America's omniscient analysts forecast a very strong month for Retail Sales in February data (released today)...

The actual print was +0.6% MoM (better than the 0.5% consensus, but less than BofA's forecast) comes after a revised higher 0.1% MoM decline in January (and December's nothingburger)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest MoM rise since June 2025, and sales rose 3.7% YoY...

Core Retail Sales (Ex Autos) rose 0.5% MoM (much better than expected) and Ex Autos and Gas also rose more than expected (+0.4% MoM).

Food and Beverage spending fell while Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers saw the biggest jump...

Most importantly, the 'Control Group' which plugs into the GDP calculation rose 0.5% MoM (also considerably better than expected).

Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) have rebounded from a negative print in December...

Of course, this data was before the war started and before gas prices really exploded (but then again April's tax refunds may offset some of the pain).