Could Ticket-Splitters Hurt Biden In 2024?

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by Tyler Durden
Sunday, May 26, 2024 - 08:55 PM

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Joe Biden is struggling to win over key Democratic voting blocs in battleground states, according to recent polls. Yet, it’s becoming increasingly evident that this challenge is largely unique to the incumbent president himself, rather than indicative of a broader issue within the Democratic Party.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)

According to a recent poll by the New York Times and Siena College, the president trailed former President Donald Trump among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup in five out of six key swing states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin was the only state where the president had the advantage.

Among likely voters, which are considered a more accurate reflection, the race was tighter, with President Trump holding his advantage in five states and President Biden edging ahead in Michigan.

Meanwhile, the Senate races are showing a very different picture.

In four battleground states, Democratic Senate candidates outperformed President Biden, according to the New York Times/Siena College survey.

In Nevada, for example, where President Biden is facing his biggest challenge, President Trump holds a 12-point lead. However, in the Senate race, polls indicate that Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is heading off her Republican opponent, Sam Brown, by 40 percent to 38 percent among registered voters.

In Arizona, the former president leads 49 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is ahead of his Republican rival for Senate, Kari Lake, by 4 points. And a most recent CBS News poll indicates an even wider margin, with Mr. Gallego holding a 13-point lead.

A study by the Center for Politics, since World War II, shows 196 instances of ticket-splitting, which means that states voted for a president from one party and a Senate candidate from another party.

However, that trend has become a lot less common in recent years.

In 2020, nearly 90 percent of candidate Biden and President Trump voters also opted for a congressional candidate from the same party. However, in the 1970s and ‘80s, that ratio was roughly 70 percent, according to the American National Election Studies.

“Split ticket voting at the Senate level is not as prevalent as it used to be,” Ford O’Connell, a political analyst and Republican strategist, told The Epoch Times.

Maine was the only state in 2020 where voters split their tickets, electing Democrat Mr. Biden for president and Republican Susan Collins for Senate.

President Joe Biden takes a selfie with supporters at a YMCA in Nashua, N.H., on May 21, 2024. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Is 2024 Ripe for Ticket-Splitting?

Some observers are wondering if ticket splitters will return in 2024, given the large gaps in the survey results of presidential and Senate races.

Aside from Nevada and Arizona, President Biden is underperforming in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) leads by 5 points, and in Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads by 9 points, according to the New York Times/Siena College poll.

Even in red states like Ohio and Montana, where President Trump enjoys overwhelming popularity, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lead their Republican opponents in polls.

This is the opposite of what happened in 2020 when congressional Republicans outperformed President Trump and President Biden outperformed congressional Democrats.

Mitchell Brown, pollster and director of political strategy at Cygnal, said the large gaps are driven by President Biden’s historically low approval ratings.

This creates the possibility that President Trump could win several battleground states in 2024, while Democratic incumbent senators retain their seats in those races, Mr. Brown told The Epoch Times.

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