Democrats are in panic mode after a NY Times poll released on Sunday shows Trump wiping the floor with President Biden in 5 out of 6 battleground swing states that Biden carried in 2020. In short, if the 2024 election were held today, according to the Times, Trump would absolutely clobber Biden.
According to the poll from NYT and Sienna College, Biden would lose to Trump by margins ranging from three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Biden only leads Trump by 2% in the 6th state, Wisconsin.
As Axios sums up:
- Biden led Trump in Wisconsin but is down 4 points in Pennsylvania, 5 in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, and 10 in Nevada.
- 71 percent said Biden was "too old," including 54 percent of Biden's supporters.
- Only 39 percent of those voters felt the same about Trump, who would be the oldest president ever inaugurated and has shared no details about his health.
- Swing state voters said they trust Trump over Biden on the economy by a 22-point margin, 59 to 37 percent.
- Trump and Biden are effectively tied among voters under 30 — a large shift from 2020.
What's more, Biden is also polling weaker than alternative Democrats - including Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the poll, Trump leads Biden by 5 points and Harris by 3, while a generic, unnamed Democrat would fare even better with an 8-point lead over Trump (13% better than Biden).
According to Democratic strategist David Axelrod, it's 'very late to change horses' in terms of Biden's 2024 run, and this poll will "send tremors of doubt thru the party.'
"The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore," Axelrod continued.
The @POTUS is justly proud of his accomplishments. Trump is a dangerous, unhinged demagogue whose brazen disdain for the rules, norms, laws and institutions or democracy should be disqualifying. But the stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore.— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2023
Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2023
Former Obama senior advisor and Pod Save America host Dan Pfeiffer wrote a blog post on how Democrats should react to the "very bad NYT Poll," and said that he didn't want to sugarcoat it: "While some of Trump’s gains among Black, Hispanic, and young voters may be hard to believe, numbers like these are broadly consistent with the trendlines in recent polls. This poll shows that not only can Trump win, he might now be a slight favorite to do so. Even if we don’t take the results literally, we should take them very, very seriously."
In short, Democrats have to win back demographics they've lost since 2020:
Instead of doom-scrolling and tweeting through our panic, we should see this poll as a roadmap on how to reconstitute the anti-MAGA majority. We have to persuade the voters we have lost since 2020. Here’s one place to start. -Message Box News
Team Biden downplayed the poll, with re-election campaign spox Kevin Munoz telling Axios that "predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don't take our word for it: Gallup predicted an eight point loss for President Obama only for him to win handedly a year later."
"We'll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll," he continued.
Maybe that's why mercenary neocon Bill Kristol just told ol' Joe to pack it in?
It's time.— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 5, 2023
President Biden has served our country well. I'm confident he'll do so for the next year.
But it's time for an act of personal sacrifice and public spirit.
It's time to pass the torch to the next generation.
It's time for Biden to announce he won't run in 2024.