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Elon Musk's PAC Bets Trans Issue Push Will Drive GOP Voters To The Polls

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Authored...

Elon Musk's America PAC has opened its 2026 midterm ad campaign with a barrage of ads centered on trans issues. Musk has reportedly authorized the PAC to spend more than $100 million this cycle and is targeting four Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races: Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska. They are running online and across streaming platforms, marking the first coordinated trans-focused push of the cycle from a major Republican-aligned outside group.

Photograph: Michael Swensen/Getty Images

According to AdImpact, the firm that tracks political ad spending, trans issues have been a minor theme in GOP Senate advertising so far this cycle. America PAC's opening salvo changes that calculus, and it arrives as Republicans navigate a difficult midterm environment, with voters across party lines angry over the Iran war and the high gas prices that have followed it. Economic concerns dominate what voters tell pollsters they want candidates to address. Trans and LGBT issues barely register on those same surveys.

So, why try this now? The answer traces back to the final weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign, when a similar ad devastated Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. Trump's closing spots successfully cast Kamala Harris as out of touch because of her support for taxpayer-funded gender transitions for prison inmates and illegal immigrants, culminating in the line "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you."

Democrats have not disputed the ad's effectiveness, even in hindsight. Quentin Fulks, Harris's principal deputy campaign manager, said after the election that even though trans issues sat "at the bottom for voters," trailing the economy, immigration, crime and inflation in what people actually cared about, the "Kamala is for they/them" line effectively branded Harris as "out of touch."

According to a report from Semafor after the election, Democratic Party allies had expected it to "flop or backfire," but instead, "it inspired more than $215 million of follow-up ads, by multiple campaigns, dividing Democrats and fulfilling the Trump campaign's goal of branding Harris as an out-of-touch progressive."

That explains why America PAC is reaching for the same playbook now, and public opinion data suggests this still can be an effective strategy.

Gallup found in 2025 that 66 percent of Americans want a person's birth sex listed on documents such as passports and driver's licenses, versus 31 percent who favor listing current gender identity. Sixty-nine percent told Gallup they favor requiring transgender athletes to compete on teams matching their biological sex. Pew Research Center found nearly identical numbers on athletics, 66 percent in favor and just 15 percent opposed, with support up 8 points since 2022. A separate Pew survey published Aug. 11, 2026, found 73 percent of respondents uncomfortable, to varying degrees, with transgender athletes competing on teams that do not match their biological sex. On gender transitions for minors, Pew found 56 percent favor making it illegal for health-care professionals to provide gender-transition treatment to people under 18, up 10 points since 2022.

Whether pivoting midterm messaging to the culture war pays off depends on a variable the 2024 campaign did not have to contend with: an electorate frustrated with Republicans over the Iran war and the prices that have followed it. Trans messaging worked in 2024 as an addition to an economic argument that heavily favored Trump. America PAC is banking on it working again in this cycle as a substitute for one.

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