Democrat Wins Texas Special Election, Eroding GOP's Slim House Majority
Republicans' thin majority in the US House grew slimmer still on Saturday, as a special election in Texas has filled a long-vacant seat with a Democrat who's vowed to "tear ICE up from the roots."
Progressive leftist Christian Menefee will represent Texas's 18th Congressional District, after beating fellow Democrat Amanda Edwards in a runoff election for a seat that's been vacant since Democrat Sylvester Turner died last March.
The development comes as new polls show Democrats with a national edge heading into November's midterms.
While the black-and-Latino-dominated Houston-area district was predestined to send another Democrat to Washington, the finality of a free-for-all race that started with 16 candidates means Republicans will soon have a razor-thin four-seat lead.
Before Saturday, Republicans held a narrow 218–213 majority in the U.S. House. Democrats will likely push for Menefee’s immediate swearing in, which will erode the GOP lead to 218–214.
Three additional House vacancies in Georgia, New Jersey, and California have special elections scheduled in March, April, and August, respectively.
Democrats were furious last year when House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) delayed the swearing-in of Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) until mid-November, two months after she won a special election.
Despite Democrats’ excitement over Menefee’s win, it doesn’t offer much insight into which party has an edge in November’s midterm elections.
The 2024 Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Kamala Harris won Texas’s 18th district by a 40 percent-point margin over President Donald Trump, 69 percent to 29 percent.
Democrats accused Gov. Gregory Abbott of slow-rolling the special election, so as to ease the pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson, who must repeatedly contend with rebellious GOP holdouts as he ushers bills through the legislative process in a closely-split House.
Though Turner died in March, Abbott didn't schedule the election until November, saying he felt it important not to rush things, given Harris County's checkered election history.
"No county in Texas does a worse job of conducting elections than Harris County. They repeatedly fail to conduct elections consistent with state law," he said in April.
The delay was compounded when the race went to a runoff.
Speaking to cheering supporters Saturday night, Menefee addressed some of his remarks to President Trump:
"The results here tonight are a mandate for me to work as hard as I can to oppose your agenda, to fight back against where you're taking this country and to investigate your crimes."
The progressive Menefee, who was Harris County Attorney, assured the crowd that he would work to deliver universal health care, impeach Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and "tear ICE up from the roots."
Amanda Edwards going *very* negative on Christian Menefee in the closing days of the TX-18 all-Democratic special election >>> pic.twitter.com/i9rLeOSJV1
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) January 30, 2026
If recent polls are an indication, the GOP has ground to make up if it's to retain its hold on the House. A Fox News poll published this week found that, in a generic "which party do your prefer" question, 52% of voters said they'd back a Democrat to represent their district, compared to 46% who said they'd vote Republican.
Analysts caution that these polls have limited predictive value at this point.
"Political science analyses demonstrate that aggregate responses to this question begin to more accurately predict the actual House vote by around mid-summer," GOP pollster Daron Shaw told Fox.
Trump could be a significant handicap for Republican office-seekers.
On the issue of affordability, voters currently prefer Democrats by a whopping 14-point margin, and Dems are sure to emphasize the role of Trump's sprawling tariff regime in boosting prices.
He's also given them a heap of tone-deaf quotes to use in advertising - for example, saying "the word 'affordability' is a con job."
Meanwhile, Trump has dampened the enthusiasm of many conservatives, through his failure to deliver spending cuts, his administration's attempts to avoid releasing the Epstein files, and his pursuit of the Deep State's regime change agenda in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran.