Vance's 2028 Odds Tumble After Midterm Bloodbath - And Rubio Isn't The One Cashing In

Vice President JD Vance's odds of winning the 2028 Republican nomination tumbled overnight as Democrats absolutely torched Republicans in Tuesday's midterms, flipping both the House and the Senate. On Polymarket, Vance slid from about 37% to 31.4%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rocketed from around 3% to 15.5%, in a market that has drawn more than $726 million in bets.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vance's closest rival in the polls, barely moved at 19.2%, roughly where he sat before polls closed. Kalshi shows the same shuffle: Vance at 32% and Rubio at 22%, both down slightly, while DeSantis is up 14 points to 19%.

The selloff hit Tuesday night as results rolled in, hours before Vance offered his own autopsy on X Wednesday morning. "The reason we lost is the war," he wrote, as we reported earlier. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so."

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

Before the war began, Vance was the White House official most opposed to a full-scale war with Iran, the New York Times reported in April. Distance or not, he's the sitting vice president of an administration that just lost both chambers of Congress.

Florida was one of the GOP's bright spots: Rep. Byron Donalds will succeed the term-limited DeSantis as governor, while Democrats flipped governor's mansions in Georgia and Texas. Vance cited the state himself, writing that Florida's electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, "just a couple points worse than 2024."

Vance's lead had already shrunk from the start of the year. A New York Times/Siena poll of 850 likely GOP primary voters, taken Oct. 12 to 19, had him at 33% to Rubio's 23%, with 26% undecided or declining to answer. In February, Emerson had Vance crushing Rubio 52% to 20%; by May, the two were essentially tied at 36% to 35%.

Neither man has declared, and Rubio has said he would defer to Vance. Vance has said he would talk over a 2028 run with his wife after the midterms - which ended Tuesday.