Robotaxis Enter Commercialization Phase In North America With Hyperscaling Next

Tesla's robotaxi reveal and Waymo's rapid expansion across U.S. cities have dominated the conversation around autonomous vehicles (AVs) in North America. A new note from Goldman Sachs provides a framework showing that AVs have officially entered the commercialization phase in ridesharing and trucking, and their proliferation into the real economy is poised for hyperscale well into the 2030s.

"There are already over 1,500 Waymo robotaxis on roads in the U.S. Tesla hopes to begin commercial robotaxi operations in June in Austin," a team of Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney wrote in a note to clients Monday morning. 

The U.S. rideshare market, currently valued at $58 billion, is expected to swell to over $336 billion by 2030. Delaney estimates robotaxis will capture about $7 billion of that market, representing 8% of total rideshare bookings. While this figure may seem modest, it represents a significant leap from the $300 million projected for 2025, with a nearly 90% compound annual growth rate.