The 12 things you need to know on investor positioning
Hedge fund hit
US hedge fund 20 day net flows hit the most negative (1 sigma) since mid-January.
Source: JPM PI
Fairly heavily grossed up
1. "overall" feel is that we currently are at a fairly heavily ‘grossed’ up state.
2. Systematic community have flipped from max short to now closer to max long
3. The retail community have re-engaged post the AI driven Nasdaq rally
4. the Long only community have re-invested cash balances that sat on the sidelines
5. we’re yet to see any selling or anxiety from the Long only community. (GS)
Hallelujah inflows
Largest weekly inflow to equities since March ’22. Equity investors front-running seasonality.
Source: BofA
Back into really stretched
The GS "positioning & sentiment" indicator is back into interesting territory.
Source: Goldman
Tech has done the heavy lifting
Concentration not only in performance; in inflows too. Tech is doing most of the heavy lifting over the past few months in terms of equity inflow.
Source: Barclays
Tech flows turning?
"Over the past 5 days, we saw nearly 3z net selling in US Tech (Semis and Tech Hardware), 1z net selling in EMEA Tech (Semis mostly), and 3z net selling in Japan Tech (Tech HW, Semis, and Software)." (JPM PI)
Positioning close to neutral
Deutsche says the summer squeeze has played out and we are back to neutral again.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Discretionary investors right at neutral
Discretionary investors (that is, the non-systematic, ie the real human investors) are right at neutral.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Stuck in the middle with all of you
More sentiment indicators that currently are in "No Man's Land" right at average and mean. AAII Bull-Bear in chart 1 and Put-Call ration in chart 2.
Source: Barclays
Source: Barclays
Hovering around neutral
Investor sentiment is hovering below neutral, near-term RSI momentum improves.
Source: Macrobond
Cash at neutral
BofA private client cash holdings as % of AUM gives absolutely no signal.
Source: Flow Show
No man's land
Hartnett's "Bull& Bear" indicator drops from 4.1 to 3.6, but remains in "no signal" zone.
Source: Hartnett
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