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The 12 things you need to know on investor positioning

The Market Ear Picture

Hedge fund hit

US hedge fund 20 day net flows hit the most negative (1 sigma) since mid-January.

Source: JPM PI

 

Fairly heavily grossed up

1. "overall" feel is that we currently are at a fairly heavily ‘grossed’ up state.

2. Systematic community have flipped from max short to now closer to max long

3. The retail community have re-engaged post the AI driven Nasdaq rally

4. the Long only community have re-invested cash balances that sat on the sidelines

5. we’re yet to see any selling or anxiety from the Long only community. (GS)

Hallelujah inflows

Largest weekly inflow to equities since March ’22. Equity investors front-running seasonality.

Source: BofA

 

Back into really stretched

The GS "positioning & sentiment" indicator is back into interesting territory.

Source: Goldman

 

Tech has done the heavy lifting

Concentration not only in performance; in inflows too. Tech is doing most of the heavy lifting over the past few months in terms of equity inflow.

Source: Barclays

 

Tech flows turning?

"Over the past 5 days, we saw nearly 3z net selling in US Tech (Semis and Tech Hardware), 1z net selling in EMEA Tech (Semis mostly), and 3z net selling in Japan Tech (Tech HW, Semis, and Software)." (JPM PI)

Positioning close to neutral

Deutsche says the summer squeeze has played out and we are back to neutral again.

Source: Deutsche Bank

 

Discretionary investors right at neutral

Discretionary investors (that is, the non-systematic, ie the real human investors) are right at neutral.

Source: Deutsche Bank

 

Stuck in the middle with all of you

More sentiment indicators that currently are in "No Man's Land" right at average and mean. AAII Bull-Bear in chart 1 and Put-Call ration in chart 2.

Source: Barclays

 

Source: Barclays

 

Hovering around neutral

Investor sentiment is hovering below neutral, near-term RSI momentum improves.

Source: Macrobond

 

Cash at neutral

BofA private client cash holdings as % of AUM gives absolutely no signal.

Source: Flow Show

 

No man's land

Hartnett's "Bull& Bear" indicator drops from 4.1 to 3.6, but remains in "no signal" zone.

Source: Hartnett

 

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