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The AI Trade: From Euphoria To Capitulation

The Pendulum Swings

For months, the market worried that AI capex had become unsustainable. Now, those concerns are finally showing up where they usually appear first: the credit market. Yet while hyperscaler balance sheets are facing increasing scrutiny, semiconductor positioning has already undergone a brutal reset. The question is no longer whether excess has been removed, but whether the pendulum has begun to swing too far.

A quarter-trillion