Are we wrong not to be max long?

Bullish! Q2 was the bottom

Consensus expects year/year EPS growth bottomed in 2Q.

Source: Goldman

Bullish! Earnings at new highs

Underlying earnings at new highs.

Source: Deutsche Bank

Earnings sentiment pointing up

2023 earnings sentiment is positve in all major markets.

Source: FactSet

The US economic surprise index is near a 2.5-year high

"....the economic data has continued to come in well above expectations, as evidenced by the Economic Surprise Index near a 2.5-year high and earnings continuing to surprise to the upside with 79% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating on EPS so far."

Source: JPM

SPX underperforming "surprises"

Chart shows US economic surprise index vs S&P500.

Source: JPM

Far from peak...

Nasdaq 100 trades at 4.6 times sales, far from "crazy covid" days.....

Source: Bloomberg

Some positioning easing

Overall positioning has declined over the last 3 weeks, driven by discretionary investors, according to Deutsche Bank.

Source: Deutsche Bank

The Fed has got to be happy with this

The NY Fed’s US consumer inflation expectations survey tells a very similar story to last Friday’s University of Michigan price expectations data. Despite rising gasoline costs, consumers think inflation more broadly will continue to slow. The Fed has got to be happy with that.

Source: ING

Inflation slowdown running ahead of schedule

"... the risks to our long-standing forecast that year-on-year core PCE inflation will reach the 2-2½% range by late 2024 are now on the earlier side" (Jan Hatzius)

Source: Haver

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