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From bears to bulls to AI booms

Bears did it again?

The massive move lower in the AAII bull - bear spread (outlined here) has resulted in markets squeezing lately. Nothing new, but frustrating for the crowd.

Source: Refinitiv

 

Smart money

Smart or not, but they missed the latest squeeze...

Source: Barclays

 

Buyback ATH

29% of global stocks are buying back their shares, approaching a high. The number is almost as high as the % number of stocks that do not have enough EBITDA to pay their interest....

Source: BofA Quant

 

Luxury is real tech

Impressive chart...

Source: BCA

 

It sucks to be small

Things are getting tougher and tougher for "some". With the ongoing challenges faced by small to mid-sized companies, the signs point towards an impending recession. And while larger corporations might seem insulated now, they could soon feel the indirect, cascading effects of an economy in a recession.

Source: Soc Gen

 

AI is running ahead....

Surprise surprise, it is going better than planned...."OpenAI is currently on pace to generate more than $1 billion in revenue over the next 12 months from the sale of artificial intelligence software and the computing capacity that powers it. That’s far ahead of revenue projections the company previously shared with its shareholders, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation" (The Information)

Two things to note here:

1. OpenAI generated just $28 million in revenue last year before it started charging for its groundbreaking chatbot, ChatGPT. Nice revenue delta!

2. The billion-dollar revenue figure means that the $27 billion valuation does not look that crazy anymore.

AI ATH

1. NVDA is up 210.000% since IPO in 1999

2. If you had invested $10.000 in the IPO you would have $19.5 million now

3. During the years as a listed company the share price has dropped >50% more than 10 times and >90% at 2 times.

Is Walter Isaacson shadowing Huang already?

Talk the talk

We went from ~500 mentions of AI on earnings calls in 2015 to ~30,000 this year and we still have 4 months left.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Can't get enough

NVDA pritinng another new ATH. What is NASDAQ doing "down" here?

Source: Refinitiv

 

Daredevils

We are not saying that they are not right....

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